Motor vehicle theft trends showed more variability. There were 45 incidents in 2011, which increased to 65 in 2022, a 44% rise. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 people only increased slightly from 0.62 in 2011 to 0.86 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 0.18% in 2011, peaking at 0.56% in 2019, and then decreasing to 0.23% by 2022. This suggests that while motor vehicle thefts have increased, the city's contribution to statewide incidents has remained relatively low.

Arson incidents in the city have shown significant fluctuations. From 6 cases in 2011, it peaked at 13 in 2012, then dropped to a low of 0 in 2019, before rising again to 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people varied accordingly, from 0.08 in 2011 to 0.04 in 2022. The city's percentage of state arsons has been volatile, ranging from 0.67% in 2011 to a high of 1.21% in 2012, and settling at 0.45% in 2022. This indicates that arson remains a relatively rare but unpredictable crime in the city.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $76,103 in 2013 to $91,928 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 1,131 to 561. This suggests that rising economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued overall decrease in property crimes. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 50-55 incidents annually. Larceny-thefts may continue to decline, potentially reaching around 380-400 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts might see a slight increase, potentially reaching 70-75 incidents annually. Arson cases are predicted to remain low, likely not exceeding 5 incidents per year.

In summary, Bolingbrook has seen a significant improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive trend appears to be correlated with rising median incomes. While motor vehicle thefts have shown a slight increase, they remain relatively low compared to other property crimes. The city's contribution to statewide property crimes has generally decreased or remained stable, indicating that local crime reduction efforts have been effective. As the community continues to grow and prosper, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.