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Property Crime Trends in Blakely, Georgia: A Decade of Change in a Small Urban Area
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Blakely, Georgia, a small city with a population of around 8,000, has experienced notable changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city witnessed a 19.4% reduction in total property crime incidents, dropping from 129 to 104, while its population slightly decreased by 2.4%. This trend suggests an overall improvement in the city's property crime situation. Burglary rates in Blakely have shown a significant downward trend. The number of burglaries decreased by 51.2%, from 41 in 2010 to 20 in 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.12 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 2.56 per 1,000 in 2022. However, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.12% to 0.21% during this period, indicating that Blakely's improvement, while substantial, was slower than the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents also decreased, though less dramatically than burglaries. The number of larceny-thefts dropped by 14%, from 86 in 2010 to 74 in 2022. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 10.74 to 9.47 during this period. Similar to burglaries, the city's share of state larceny-thefts increased slightly, suggesting that Blakely's improvement in this category was also behind the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends in Blakely present a more complex picture. The number of incidents increased from 2 in 2010 to 10 in 2022, a 400% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.25 to 1.28, and the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased significantly from 0.02% to 0.11%. This trend indicates that motor vehicle theft has become a growing concern for the city, outpacing both population growth and state averages.
Arson data for Blakely is limited, with most years reporting no incidents. In 2022, one arson case was reported, representing 0.36% of state arsons. Due to the rarity of these incidents, it is difficult to establish a meaningful trend for this crime category.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. Blakely's median income increased by 32.6%, from $30,454 in 2013 to $40,386 in 2022. During this period, the overall property crime rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 26.3 to 13.3, suggesting a potential inverse relationship between income and property crime rates.
The racial composition of Blakely has also shifted slightly. The Black population increased from 53% in 2013 to 58% in 2022, while the White population decreased from 45% to 40%. This demographic shift coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, though a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further analysis.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to continue their downward trends, albeit at a slower rate. However, motor vehicle theft may continue to be a growing concern if current trends persist.
In summary, Blakely has made significant progress in reducing burglary and larceny-theft over the past decade, despite a slight population decline. The increase in motor vehicle thefts presents a challenge that may require targeted interventions. The correlation between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates suggests that economic factors may play a role in the city's crime dynamics. As Blakely continues to evolve demographically and economically, ongoing monitoring and adaptive strategies will be crucial in maintaining and improving public safety.
