Motor vehicle theft showed an increase over the decade. There were no reported cases in 2010, but by 2020, there were 2 incidents. This translates to an increase from 0 to 1.99 thefts per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2020. While the absolute numbers are small, the emergence of this crime type in a small community is noteworthy.

Arson data is limited, with only one reported case in 2015, representing 0.12% of state arsons that year. The rate was 0.77 arsons per 1,000 residents in 2015. Given the sporadic nature of this crime in the city, it's difficult to establish a clear trend.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime trends and population density. As the population density decreased from 884 per square mile in 2010 to 728 in 2020, overall property crimes increased. This counterintuitive trend might suggest that other factors are influencing crime rates more significantly than population density alone.

Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, Birch Tree may see a slight increase in overall property crimes, potentially reaching 10-12 incidents annually. This forecast assumes current trends continue without significant interventions or changes in local conditions.

In summary, Birch Tree has experienced a complex evolution of property crime patterns over the past decade. While some crime types like larceny-theft have remained relatively stable, others such as burglary and motor vehicle theft have shown concerning increases. These trends, occurring against a backdrop of population decline, suggest a need for targeted crime prevention strategies and community engagement to address the changing nature of property crimes in this small Missouri city.