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Property Crime Trends in Biltmore Forest: A Decade of Growth and Shifting Patterns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Biltmore Forest in North Carolina presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2012 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in this small community fluctuated between 10 and 19 incidents annually, with no clear long-term trend. Over the same period, the population grew significantly from 7,323 in 2012 to 9,516 in 2022, representing a 30% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown notable variability. In 2012, there were 2 burglaries, which increased to 8 in 2021 before decreasing to 6 in 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.27 in 2012 to 0.63 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also increased, from 0% in 2012 to 0.02% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries remain relatively rare, they have become more prevalent in recent years relative to both the city's population and state figures.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, showed a declining trend. The number of incidents dropped from 12 in 2012 to 5 in 2022. When adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased even more sharply, from 1.64 in 2012 to 0.53 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents remained low, decreasing from 0.01% to 0% over the decade. This indicates a significant improvement in larceny-theft prevention or reporting within the community.
Motor vehicle theft has been rare in the city, with most years reporting zero incidents. However, there was a slight uptick in recent years, with one incident in 2020 and two in 2022. Despite this increase, the rate per 1,000 residents remained low at 0.21 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased marginally from 0% to 0.01% over the decade, reflecting the recent occurrences.
Arson cases were nonexistent for most of the reported period, with the first recorded incident occurring in 2022. This single case represented 0.11% of state arson incidents that year, a surprisingly high percentage given the city's small size. While this could be an anomaly, it warrants attention in future years to determine if it's the start of a new trend.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 2,516 per square mile in 2012 to 3,269 in 2022, the overall property crime rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.91 to 1.37. This suggests that the growing population may have contributed to increased community vigilance or improved security measures.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates by 2029. Burglary rates may continue to fluctuate but are expected to remain below 1 per 1,000 residents. Larceny-theft is projected to stabilize around 5-7 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft and arson are expected to remain rare, with possibly 0-2 incidents per year.
In summary, Biltmore Forest has experienced a general decline in property crime rates relative to its growing population over the past decade. The most significant improvement has been in larceny-theft, while burglaries have shown some increase. The community's extremely low rates of motor vehicle theft and arson, despite recent isolated incidents, reflect positively on local safety measures. As the town continues to grow, maintaining these low crime rates will likely depend on ongoing community engagement and adaptive law enforcement strategies.
