Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown some variability. From 1 incident in 2010, it increased to 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.38 in 2010 to 1.2 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.01% to 0.05% during this period. While the absolute numbers remain low, the relative increase suggests a need for increased vigilance in vehicle security.

Arson cases in the city have been sporadic, with years of no reported incidents interspersed with occasional occurrences. The highest number of arsons reported was 2 in 2012, with single incidents in 2014, 2016, 2017, and 2020. The city's contribution to state-wide arson cases has fluctuated, reaching a peak of 0.65% in 2020. The infrequent nature of these incidents makes it challenging to establish a clear trend, but it highlights the need for continued fire prevention efforts.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $61,389 in 2016 to $71,126 in 2022, the total property crime incidents decreased from 52 to 31. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between the percentage of white residents and property crime rates. As the white population decreased from 61% in 2016 to 54% in 2022, property crime incidents also decreased.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are expected to remain low, potentially reaching near-zero levels. Larceny-theft is projected to remain the most common property crime, with a slight downward trend. Motor vehicle thefts may stabilize or show a minor increase. Arson incidents are predicted to remain sporadic and infrequent.

In summary, Beverly has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglaries. The persistent nature of larceny-theft and the slight increase in motor vehicle thefts highlight areas for continued focus. The city's changing demographics and improving economic conditions appear to have played a role in these trends. As Beverly moves forward, maintaining and enhancing current crime prevention strategies will be crucial in sustaining and improving upon these positive trends in property crime reduction.