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Property Crime Trends in Bethel Park: A Decade of Decline and Stabilization
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Bethel Park, located in Pennsylvania, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2018, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, starting at 292 in 2010, peaking at 329 in 2012, and then decreasing to 282 by 2018, representing a 3.4% overall decrease. During this same period, the population grew slightly from 32,249 in 2010 to 32,185 in 2018, a 0.2% increase.
Burglary rates in the city showed a significant downward trend over the observed period. In 2010, there were 50 burglaries, which decreased to 16 by 2018, representing a 68% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 1.55 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.50 per 1,000 in 2018. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated but generally decreased, from 0.2% in 2010 to 0.12% in 2018. This substantial decline in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in the area.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed more variability. It increased from 237 incidents in 2010 to 282 in 2016, before declining to 261 in 2018, representing a net increase of 10.1%. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 7.35 in 2010 to 8.11 in 2018. Notably, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.31% to 0.4% during this period, indicating that this type of crime became relatively more prevalent in the city compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends were less consistent. The number of incidents fluctuated from 5 in 2010 to a peak of 16 in 2014, before decreasing to 5 again in 2018. The rate per 1,000 residents followed a similar pattern, peaking at 0.49 in 2014 and ending at 0.16 in 2018. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased overall, from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2018, with a significant spike to 0.19% in 2014. This volatility suggests that targeted interventions may have been implemented to address the 2014 surge.
Arson cases in the city were infrequent, with a maximum of 2 incidents reported in 2010 and 2015, and no reported cases in several years. The rate per 1,000 residents never exceeded 0.06. The city's share of state arsons fluctuated significantly, from 0.33% in 2010 to 0% in several years, indicating that arson was not a consistent problem in the area.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the city's increasing median income and the overall decrease in property crimes. The median income rose from $78,390 in 2013 to $83,197 in 2018, coinciding with the general downward trend in property crimes. Additionally, the relatively stable and high percentage of owner-occupied housing (around 80%) throughout the period may have contributed to the lower burglary rates, as homeowners often invest more in security measures.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see a further reduction in burglaries, potentially dropping below 10 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is likely to remain the predominant property crime but may stabilize around 250 incidents per year. Motor vehicle thefts could continue to fluctuate but are expected to remain below 10 incidents annually. Arson cases are predicted to remain rare, with likely fewer than one incident per year on average.
In summary, Bethel Park has demonstrated a generally positive trend in property crime reduction, particularly in burglaries. The city's increasing affluence and high rate of homeownership appear to correlate with these improvements. While larceny-theft remains a concern, the overall property crime landscape shows signs of stabilization and improvement, positioning the city as an increasingly safer community within Pennsylvania.
