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Property Crime Trends in Berlin, New Hampshire: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Berlin, located in New Hampshire, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, total property crimes increased from 148 to 172, representing a 16.2% increase. During this same period, the population decreased from 10,208 to 9,485, a 7.1% decline, creating an interesting juxtaposition between crime rates and population trends.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 54 burglaries, which decreased to 13 in 2022, a 75.9% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.29 to 1.37 per 1,000 residents. Despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries increased slightly from 2.25% in 2010 to 2.35% in 2022. This suggests that while local burglary rates improved, they didn't decline as rapidly as the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed an overall increase. The number of incidents rose from 94 in 2010 to 150 in 2022, a 59.6% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 9.21 to 15.81. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft crimes more than doubled, from 0.89% to 2.19%, indicating a significantly higher growth rate compared to the state average. This trend suggests a growing concern for petty theft in the area.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited fluctuations but ultimately increased. From no reported cases in 2010, it rose to 9 incidents in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0 to 0.95. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0% to 1.68%, suggesting a disproportionate growth compared to state trends. This emerging trend warrants attention from local law enforcement.
Arson cases have remained relatively low but variable. The number of incidents increased from 3 in 2010 to 4 in 2022, with fluctuations in between. The rate per 1,000 residents rose slightly from 0.29 to 0.42. However, the city's contribution to state arson cases increased dramatically from 1.74% to 6.35%, indicating a concerning trend relative to state figures.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density decreased from 166 per square mile in 2010 to 154 in 2022, overall property crime rates increased. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between racial demographics and crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased from 95% in 2013 to 88% in 2022, property crime rates increased, suggesting potential socio-economic factors at play.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, Berlin may see: a continued decrease in burglaries, potentially reaching single digits annually; larceny-theft cases potentially exceeding 200 per year; motor vehicle thefts likely stabilizing around 10-12 cases annually; and arson cases potentially fluctuating between 3-5 incidents per year.
In summary, Berlin faces a complex property crime landscape. While burglaries have significantly decreased, other property crimes, particularly larceny-theft, have risen. The city's growing share of state crime figures in several categories, despite its decreasing population, indicates a need for targeted crime prevention strategies. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts, suggest that addressing socio-economic factors and community engagement could be key to mitigating future property crime challenges in Berlin.
