Motor vehicle theft trends in the city showed more variability but ultimately decreased over the decade. From 19 incidents in 2010, the number dropped to 17 in 2019, a modest 10.5% reduction. However, when adjusted for population, the rate remained relatively stable, moving from 0.67 to 0.61 incidents per 1,000 residents. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.08% to 0.11%, suggesting that while Belvidere saw improvements, they were less pronounced than those seen at the state level for this particular crime.

Arson cases in the city fluctuated significantly over the years. From 6 incidents in 2010, the number dropped to 1 in 2019, representing an 83.3% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.21 to 0.04. However, the city's share of state arson cases varied widely, from a high of 0.58% in 2010 to a low of 0% in 2013, before settling at 0.1% in 2019. This volatility suggests that arson incidents, while rare, can have a significant impact on the city's crime statistics when they do occur.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $56,600 in 2013 to $57,815 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a slight positive correlation between the Hispanic population percentage and property crime rates. As the Hispanic population grew from 30% in 2013 to 35% in 2022, property crime rates initially decreased but then stabilized.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the overall downward trend, but at a slower rate. Burglaries are predicted to stabilize around 35-40 incidents per year, while larceny-theft may settle in the range of 180-200 cases annually. Motor vehicle thefts are expected to remain relatively constant at 15-18 incidents per year. Arson cases are projected to remain low, with 1-2 incidents annually.

In summary, Belvidere has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, with substantial decreases across all categories. The city's improvement in larceny-theft rates is particularly noteworthy, outpacing state-level trends. While challenges remain, especially in areas like motor vehicle theft, the overall trajectory is positive. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts and economic factors, paint a picture of a city actively working to enhance public safety and quality of life for its residents.