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Property Crime Trends in Belton, Texas: A Decade of Declining Rates Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Belton, a city in Texas, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates alongside substantial population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in Belton decreased by 34%, from 766 to 506 incidents. During this same period, the city's population grew by 41.2%, from 27,174 to 38,380 residents, indicating a notable improvement in overall property crime rates relative to population growth.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a consistent downward trend. In 2010, there were 171 burglaries, which decreased to 42 by 2022, representing a 75.4% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 6.29 in 2010 to 1.09 in 2022, an 82.6% decrease. The city's share of state burglaries also declined from 0.1% to 0.05% during this period, suggesting that Belton has made significant progress in curbing burglaries compared to the rest of Texas.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, has also seen a decline, though less dramatic than burglary. In 2010, there were 586 larceny-theft incidents, which decreased to 445 by 2022, a 24.1% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 21.56 in 2010 to 11.59 in 2022, a 46.2% decrease. However, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.09% and 0.13% over the years, indicating that the reduction in larceny-theft is consistent with statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown more volatility. There were 9 incidents in 2010, which increased to 19 in 2022, a 111% increase. However, when considering the population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents only increased from 0.33 to 0.50, a 50.5% rise. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.02% to 0.02%, suggesting that while there has been an increase, it remains a relatively small proportion of the state's total.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated over the years, with no clear trend. The number of incidents ranged from 0 to 9 annually, with 2 cases reported in 2022. Due to the low numbers, the rate per 1,000 residents and the percentage of state arsons show significant variation year to year, making it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about long-term trends.
There appears to be a moderate correlation between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,343 per square mile in 2010 to 1,897 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. This suggests that the city has managed to maintain or improve public safety despite increasing urbanization.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the overall downward trend in property crimes to continue, albeit at a slower rate. Burglaries are likely to stabilize at around 30-35 incidents annually, while larceny-theft may settle in the range of 400-425 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts could see a slight increase, potentially reaching 25-30 incidents annually. Arson cases are expected to remain low, with 1-3 incidents per year.
In summary, Belton has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft, despite substantial population growth. The city's ability to maintain lower crime rates while experiencing urbanization is commendable. However, the slight uptick in motor vehicle thefts warrants continued attention. As Belton continues to grow, maintaining these positive trends in property crime reduction will be crucial for ensuring the safety and quality of life for its residents.
