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Property Crime Trends in Belton, Missouri: A Study of Fluctuating Rates Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Belton, located in Missouri, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside a steady increase in population. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 9.3%, from 655 to 594 incidents. During this same period, the city's population grew by 5.5%, from 24,489 to 25,838 residents, indicating a general improvement in property crime rates relative to population growth.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a significant decline over the years. In 2010, there were 128 burglaries reported, which decreased to 41 by 2022, representing a 68% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate dropped from 5.23 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 1.59 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.4% in 2010, peaking at 0.56% in 2016, and settling at 0.31% in 2022. This downward trend suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies targeting burglaries.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, has shown more variability. In 2010, there were 486 reported cases, which increased to a peak of 726 in 2017 before declining to 488 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people went from 19.85 in 2010 to 18.89 in 2022, showing a slight overall decrease. The city's portion of state larceny-theft incidents rose from 0.43% in 2010 to 0.63% in 2022, indicating that while local rates have somewhat improved, they haven't kept pace with statewide reductions.
Motor vehicle theft has seen a concerning upward trend. From 41 cases in 2010, it rose to 94 in 2021 before slightly decreasing to 65 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.67 in 2010 to 2.52 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.31% to 0.54% between 2010 and 2021, dropping to 0.27% in 2022. This suggests that while 2022 saw improvement, motor vehicle theft remains a persistent issue requiring attention.
Arson cases have remained relatively low but variable. The number of incidents ranged from 0 to 6 per year, with the rate per 1,000 people never exceeding 0.24. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated significantly, from 0.1% in 2010 to a peak of 0.88% in 2021, before dropping to 0.16% in 2022. These fluctuations, given the low numbers, may not indicate a consistent trend but rather the sporadic nature of arson in a smaller city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income rose from $60,105 in 2013 to $68,585 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease, suggesting that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime. However, this correlation is not perfect, as evidenced by fluctuations in crime rates despite steady income growth.
Applying predictive models based on recent trends, it's projected that by 2029, Belton may see a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Burglary rates are expected to stabilize at around 35-40 cases per year. Larceny-theft is predicted to remain the most common property crime, potentially fluctuating between 450-500 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft may continue to be a challenge, potentially ranging from 70-80 cases per year. Arson cases are expected to remain low, likely not exceeding 5 cases annually.
In summary, Belton has shown resilience in managing property crime rates amid population growth. The significant reduction in burglaries is particularly noteworthy, while the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents an ongoing challenge. The relationship between rising median incomes and declining crime rates suggests that continued economic development could play a role in further crime reduction. As the city moves forward, focusing on strategies to address larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft, while maintaining the positive trends in burglary prevention, will be crucial for enhancing overall community safety and quality of life.
