Motor vehicle theft in Belmont has seen a concerning increase of 20%, rising from 20 incidents in 2010 to 24 in 2022. Despite this increase, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased slightly from 1.21 to 1.11 due to population growth. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.19% to 0.16%, suggesting that this type of crime might be growing faster in other parts of the state.

Arson cases in Belmont have remained low but variable. The number of cases dropped from 2 in 2010 to 1 in 2022, with the rate per 1,000 residents decreasing from 0.12 to 0.05. The city's contribution to state arson cases also decreased from 0.20% to 0.11%, indicating a potential improvement in arson prevention compared to state trends.

A strong correlation emerges between the increase in property crimes and population density. As Belmont's population density rose from 1,356 per square mile in 2010 to 1,765 in 2022, total property crimes also increased. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between the rise in median income (from $69,653 in 2013 to $82,373 in 2022) and the increase in larceny-theft, possibly indicating more valuable targets for theft.

Predictive models forecast a continued gradual increase in overall property crimes for the next five years, primarily driven by larceny-theft. Burglaries are expected to stabilize or slightly decrease, while motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise moderately. Arson cases are projected to remain low but unpredictable due to their rarity.

In conclusion, Belmont has experienced a complex evolution in property crime patterns amidst significant population growth. While burglaries have decreased substantially, larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft have increased, presenting ongoing challenges for law enforcement. The city's changing demographics and economic growth appear to be influencing these trends, necessitating adaptive strategies to address the evolving nature of property crimes in this growing North Carolina community.