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Property Crime Trends in Belmont, Massachusetts: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Belmont, Massachusetts, is a suburban community known for its high median income and excellent school system. Over the past decade, this city has experienced notable shifts in its property crime landscape. From 2010 to 2022, total property crimes decreased by 44.85%, from 330 to 182 incidents. This significant reduction occurred alongside a population growth of 10.84%, from 24,356 to 26,997 residents during the same period.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over time. In 2010, there were 151 burglaries, which dropped to 46 in 2022, representing a 69.54% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 6.20 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 1.70 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.59% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased locally, they may have decreased even more rapidly at the state level.
Larceny-theft incidents also saw a decline, though less pronounced than burglaries. The number of larceny-thefts decreased from 168 in 2010 to 126 in 2022, a 25% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 6.90 in 2010 to 4.67 in 2022. However, the city's share of state larceny-thefts increased from 0.24% to 0.30% during this period, indicating that the city's reduction in larceny-thefts was less significant compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease from 11 incidents in 2010 to 10 in 2022. However, when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 people actually decreased from 0.45 to 0.37. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.12% to 0.18%, suggesting that the city maintained lower rates of this crime compared to state trends.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. There was 1 case reported in 2010 and 1 in 2022, with some years reporting zero incidents. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated but showed an overall increase from 0.26% in 2010 to 0.39% in 2022. Given the low numbers, these percentages should be interpreted cautiously.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $125,870 in 2013 to $144,632 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. This suggests a potential negative correlation between income levels and property crime incidence. Additionally, the slight increase in population density from 5,241 per square mile in 2010 to 5,809 in 2022 did not seem to significantly impact property crime rates, which continued to decline during this period.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall declining trend, albeit at a slower rate. Based on historical data, we can project that total property crimes may decrease by an additional 10-15% by 2029, potentially reaching around 155-165 incidents annually. However, this prediction should be considered with caution due to potential unforeseen factors that could influence crime rates.
In summary, Belmont has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive trend has occurred despite population growth, suggesting effective crime prevention strategies or changing socioeconomic conditions. The increase in median income correlating with decreased crime rates points to the potential influence of economic factors on community safety. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends will likely remain a priority for local law enforcement and community leaders.
