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Property Crime Trends in Bellville, Texas: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Bellville, located in Texas, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 58.7%, from 92 to 38 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 2.8%, from 8,757 to 9,001 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 28 burglaries, which decreased to just 5 in 2022, representing an 82.1% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 3.20 in 2010 to 0.56 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.03% throughout the period. This substantial decrease in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a considerable decline. Incidents dropped from 60 in 2010 to 25 in 2022, a 58.3% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 6.85 in 2010 to 2.78 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents remained consistently low at 0.01% to 0.02%. This reduction in larceny-theft could indicate increased community vigilance or improved retail security practices.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. From 4 incidents in 2010, the number doubled to 8 in 2022. However, due to population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents only increased slightly from 0.46 to 0.89. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained low, ranging from 0% to 0.01%. This increase, while small in absolute numbers, may warrant attention from local law enforcement to prevent further escalation.
Arson cases have been rare in the city, with only sporadic incidents reported. The highest number was 2 cases in 2018, representing 0.13% of state arsons that year. The infrequency of arson cases suggests it is not a significant concern for the community.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in overall property crime rates coincides with an increase in median income, which rose from $52,489 in 2013 to $63,660 in 2022. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime. Additionally, the slight decrease in homeownership rates from 75% in 2013 to 74% in 2022 doesn't appear to have negatively impacted property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend. Based on historical data, we can project that total property crimes may further decrease to around 30-35 incidents annually by 2029. Burglaries are expected to remain low, potentially stabilizing at 3-5 cases per year. Larceny-theft may continue its gradual decline, potentially reaching 20-25 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft rates, however, may require monitoring as they could potentially increase slightly to 10-12 cases per year if current trends persist.
In summary, Bellville has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The city's improving economic conditions appear to correlate with these positive trends. While motor vehicle theft shows a slight uptick, the overall property crime landscape remains favorable. As the community continues to grow and evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the safety and security of Bellville's residents.
