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Property Crime Trends in Bellflower: A Decade of Diverging Patterns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Bellflower, a city in California, has witnessed significant changes in its property crime landscape from 2010 to 2022. Despite a slight population decrease of 0.41%, the total number of property crimes increased by 6.53%, rising from 1,776 to 1,892 incidents. This divergence between crime rates and population trends indicates complex factors influencing the city's safety dynamics.
Burglary rates in Bellflower have shown a notable downward trend. The number of burglaries decreased from 413 in 2010 to 342 in 2022, representing a 17.19% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 5.38 to 4.48. However, Bellflower's share of state burglaries increased from 0.22% to 0.29% during this period, suggesting a faster decline in other parts of California.
Larceny theft trends in Bellflower present a mixed picture. The number of incidents slightly increased from 906 in 2010 to 915 in 2022, a 0.99% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents increased marginally from 11.81 to 11.98. The city's percentage of state larceny thefts remained stable at 0.18%, indicating that Bellflower's larceny theft trends largely mirrored those of California as a whole.
Motor vehicle theft in Bellflower has seen a concerning upward trend. The number of incidents increased from 457 in 2010 to 635 in 2022, a substantial 38.95% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 5.96 to 8.31. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.36% to 0.41%, suggesting that this problem has grown more rapidly in Bellflower than in other parts of the state.
Arson cases in Bellflower have fluctuated but show an overall decreasing trend. From 7 cases in 2010, the number peaked at 13 in 2015 and 2016 before dropping to 5 in 2020. The city's share of state arson cases decreased from 0.11% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2020, indicating a relative improvement compared to statewide trends.
Examining correlations between property crime and socioeconomic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the median income in Bellflower increased from $55,772 in 2013 to $74,131 in 2022, there was a corresponding increase in property crimes from 1,882 to 1,892. This suggests that rising incomes may not have had the expected dampening effect on property crime rates. Concurrently, the percentage of owner-occupied housing decreased from 46% in 2013 to 40% in 2022, potentially contributing to increased property crimes due to lower community stability.
Predictive models forecast a potential continuation of the upward trend in property crimes. Based on historical data and current socioeconomic factors, it's projected that by 2029, Bellflower may see total property crimes reach approximately 2,100 incidents annually. This forecast considers the recent increases in motor vehicle thefts, persistent levels of larceny, and declining burglary rates.
In summary, Bellflower has faced complex property crime dynamics over the past decade. While burglaries have decreased, motor vehicle thefts have risen sharply, and larceny thefts have remained relatively stable. The divergence between decreasing population and increasing property crimes, particularly in the context of rising median incomes, presents a challenging scenario for local law enforcement and policymakers. The city's increasing share of state motor vehicle thefts and burglaries, despite population decline, suggests a need for targeted strategies to address these specific crime categories. Moving forward, comprehensive approaches that consider both socioeconomic factors and crime-specific interventions will be crucial in managing and potentially reversing these trends in Bellflower.
