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Property Crime Trends in Belle, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Small Urban Area
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Belle, Missouri, a small urban area with a population of 3,326 as of 2022, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade. From 2011 to 2018, the total number of property crimes decreased by 26.3%, from 19 to 14 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 11.1%, from 3,911 to 3,194 residents. This analysis will delve into the specific trends of various property crime categories and their implications for the city.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant volatility over the years. In 2011, there were 5 burglaries reported, which increased to 8 in 2012, representing a 60% increase. However, by 2014, burglaries had dropped to zero, a 100% decrease from 2012. The rate then fluctuated in subsequent years, reaching 5 incidents in 2018. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.28 in 2011 to 1.57 in 2018. The city's contribution to state burglary statistics also varied, ranging from 0% to 0.03% of the state's total, with the highest percentage occurring in 2012 and 2018.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, demonstrated a downward trend overall. From 12 incidents in 2011, it peaked at 21 in 2013 before declining to 8 incidents in 2018, a 33.3% decrease from 2011 levels. The rate per 1,000 residents actually increased slightly from 3.07 in 2011 to 3.51 in 2018 due to the population decrease. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics remained relatively stable, consistently at 0.01% of the state's total from 2011 to 2018, with a brief increase to 0.02% in 2013.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained low but variable. From 2 incidents in 2011, it dropped to 1 in 2012 and 2013, increased to 3 in 2014, then dropped to zero in 2015 and 2016 before rising again to 1 incident in 2017 and 2018. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, from 0.51 in 2011 to 0.31 in 2018. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts ranged from 0% to 0.02%, with the highest percentage in 2014.
Arson incidents were consistently reported as zero from 2011 to 2018, indicating either an absence of such crimes or potential underreporting. Consequently, the city's contribution to state arson statistics remained at 0% throughout this period.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 2,930 per square mile in 2011 to 2,392 in 2018, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime incidents. This suggests a potential link between population density and property crime rates in the city.
Projecting these trends forward, it's reasonable to anticipate that by 2029, Belle may continue to see fluctuations in property crime rates, with larceny-theft likely remaining the predominant form of property crime. If the population stabilizes or begins to grow again, there may be a slight uptick in overall property crime numbers, but the per capita rates could remain relatively stable or even decrease if current trends continue.
In summary, Belle has experienced a general decline in property crimes over the examined period, with some fluctuations in specific categories. The most notable trend is the persistent dominance of larceny-theft as the primary form of property crime, while burglary and motor vehicle theft have shown more variable patterns. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has remained relatively small, reflecting its modest size. These trends, coupled with demographic changes, suggest a complex interplay between population dynamics and crime rates that will likely continue to shape the city's safety profile in the coming years.
