Motor vehicle theft trends have been relatively low and stable in the city. There were no reported motor vehicle thefts in 2010, but 2 incidents were reported in 2022. This translates to a rate of 1.21 thefts per 1,000 residents in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022. While this represents an increase, the overall numbers remain low, suggesting that motor vehicle theft is not a major concern in the area.

Arson incidents have been sporadic and infrequent in the city. There was 1 reported case in 2010 and 1 in 2019, with no reported incidents in most other years. The arson rate per 1,000 residents was 0.42 in 2010 and 0.47 in 2019. The city's contribution to state arson cases was 0.1% in 2010 and 0.14% in 2019. The low frequency of arson cases indicates that it is not a persistent problem in the community.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 1,498 per square mile in 2010 to 1,042 in 2022, there was a corresponding decline in overall property crime rates. This suggests that lower population density may be associated with reduced property crime incidents. Additionally, the increase in homeownership from 51% in 2013 to 64% in 2022 coincides with the overall decrease in property crime, potentially indicating that higher rates of homeownership contribute to community stability and reduced criminal activity.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall declining trend. Based on the historical data, it is projected that total property crimes could decrease further to around 12-15 incidents annually by 2029. Burglaries may stabilize at 2-3 cases per year, while larceny-theft could potentially drop to 8-10 incidents annually. Motor vehicle thefts are expected to remain low, potentially fluctuating between 0-2 cases per year. Arson incidents are likely to remain rare and sporadic.

In summary, Belhaven has experienced a significant reduction in property crime rates over the past decade, with notable decreases in burglaries and larceny-thefts. The declining population and increasing homeownership rates appear to have contributed to this positive trend. While motor vehicle thefts and arson incidents remain low, continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention efforts will be crucial in maintaining and further improving the city's safety profile in the coming years.