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Property Crime Trends in Becker, Minnesota: A Decade of Growth and Volatility
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Becker, located in Minnesota, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside significant population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 39.3%, rising from 28 incidents in 2010 to 39 in 2022. During this same period, the population grew by 15.3%, from 6,523 in 2010 to 7,522 in 2022, indicating a faster rise in property crime rates compared to population growth.
Burglary trends in the city have shown considerable volatility. The number of burglaries increased from 6 in 2010 to a peak of 13 in 2019, before decreasing to 9 in 2022. This represents a 50% increase over the 12-year period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.92 in 2010 to 1.20 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries rose significantly, from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.09% in 2022, suggesting a disproportionate increase compared to statewide trends.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed a more moderate increase. The number of incidents rose from 19 in 2010 to 25 in 2022, a 31.6% increase. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased slightly from 2.91 in 2010 to 3.32 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft remained relatively stable, increasing marginally from 0.02% to 0.03% over the period.
Motor vehicle theft in the city saw a significant increase, from 3 incidents in 2010 to 5 in 2022, representing a 66.7% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.46 in 2010 to 0.66 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.05% to 0.03%, indicating that while local rates increased, they did not outpace statewide trends.
Arson cases in the city were sporadic, with no reported incidents in most years. However, there were notable spikes in 2019 and 2021, with 1 and 2 cases respectively. These incidents represented a significant portion of state arsons during those years (0.26% and 0.33%), highlighting the impact of even a small number of cases in a smaller community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate positive relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 559 per square mile in 2010 to 644 in 2022, property crime rates also generally trended upward. Additionally, there seems to be a weak negative correlation between property crime rates and the percentage of owner-occupied housing, which increased from 77% in 2013 to 91% in 2022.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends over the next seven years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued moderate increase in overall property crime rates. Based on current trends, burglaries and motor vehicle thefts are likely to see the most significant increases, potentially rising by 15-20% by 2029. Larceny theft is expected to show a more modest increase of 5-10%. Arson cases are likely to remain sporadic but may occur more frequently than in the past decade.
In summary, Becker has experienced a notable increase in property crime rates that has outpaced its population growth. The most significant increases have been in burglaries and motor vehicle thefts, while larceny theft has shown more moderate growth. These trends, coupled with the city's increasing share of state crime statistics in certain categories, suggest a need for targeted crime prevention strategies. The relationship between property crime and factors such as population density and home ownership provides valuable insights for community planning and law enforcement efforts.
