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Property Crime Trends in Beavercreek, Ohio: A Tale of Decline Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Beavercreek, located in Ohio, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a peak of 1,193 incidents in 2019 and a low of 616 in 2021. Overall, there was a 32.7% decrease in property crimes from 2010 to 2022. During this same period, the city's population grew from 48,134 to 51,470, representing a 6.9% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 124 burglaries, which decreased to 35 by 2022, marking a 71.8% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.58 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.68 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.12% to 0.26% over the years, indicating that the local trend aligns with broader state patterns.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the area, exhibited fluctuations but an overall decrease. The number of larceny thefts dropped from 948 in 2010 to 664 in 2022, a 30% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 19.7 in 2010 to 12.9 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state larceny thefts increased from 0.62% in 2010 to 0.65% in 2022, suggesting that the local reduction was less pronounced than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed more variability. The number of incidents increased from 32 in 2010 to 44 in 2022, a 37.5% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew slightly from 0.66 to 0.85 over this period. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.4% in 2020 before settling at 0.19% in 2022, indicating that local trends sometimes diverged from state patterns.
Arson cases in the city remained relatively low throughout the period, with the number of incidents ranging from 0 to 4 per year. The rate per 1,000 residents never exceeded 0.08. The city's share of state arsons varied considerably, from 0.06% to 0.55%, suggesting that local arson trends were not consistently aligned with state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As the median income increased from $91,849 in 2013 to $104,293 in 2022, the overall property crime rate decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between the slight decrease in white population percentage (from 87% in 2013 to 82% in 2022) and the overall reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are expected to stabilize at around 30-35 incidents per year, while larceny thefts may continue to decline slightly, potentially reaching around 600 incidents annually. Motor vehicle thefts could see a small increase, possibly reaching 50-55 incidents per year. Arson cases are likely to remain low, with 1-3 incidents annually.
In summary, Beavercreek has experienced a general decline in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny thefts. This trend has occurred alongside population growth and increasing median income, suggesting improved economic conditions may be contributing to reduced property crime. The divergence in motor vehicle theft trends highlights the need for targeted prevention strategies. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining focus on community-based crime prevention and economic development could help sustain and improve upon these positive trends in property crime reduction.
