Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Beardstown, Illinois: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Beardstown, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2011 to 2020, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, with a notable increase from 38 in 2011 to 256 in 2019, representing a 573.68% increase. During this same period, the population decreased from 7,836 in 2011 to 7,440 in 2020, a 5.05% decline.
Burglary rates in the city have shown considerable variation. In 2011, there were 22 burglaries, which decreased to 5 in 2012 and 2013. However, the numbers rose again, reaching 43 in 2017 before declining to 24 in 2020. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 2.81 in 2011 to 3.23 in 2020. The city's share of state burglaries also grew significantly, from 0.04% in 2011 to 0.12% in 2020. This trend suggests that while the overall population decreased, the city experienced a disproportionate increase in burglaries relative to the state.
Larceny-theft incidents show a more dramatic upward trend. From 13 cases in 2011, the number rose to 215 in 2019, a 1,553.85% increase. The rate per 1,000 people jumped from 1.66 in 2011 to 29.83 in 2019. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases also increased from 0.01% in 2011 to 0.15% in 2019. This substantial rise in larceny-theft, both in absolute numbers and as a proportion of state cases, indicates a growing concern for the community despite its shrinking population.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low but variable. From 3 cases in 2011, it dropped to 1 in 2014 and 2017, but then increased to 6 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 people rose slightly from 0.38 in 2011 to 0.81 in 2020. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.01% in 2011 to 0.04% in 2020, suggesting a disproportionate increase compared to state trends.
Arson cases in the city have been rare, with only one reported case in 2017, representing 0.08% of state arson cases that year. The lack of consistent arson data makes it difficult to establish a clear trend or relationship with population changes.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 2,165 people per square mile in 2011 to 2,055 in 2020, property crimes generally increased. This inverse relationship suggests that factors other than population density may be driving crime rates. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 68% in 2013 to 72% in 2020, coinciding with the overall increase in property crimes. This could indicate that rising property ownership may not necessarily lead to reduced property crime rates in this case.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now) suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend in overall property crimes. Based on the historical data, we might expect to see burglary rates stabilize around 30-35 cases per year, larceny-theft potentially reaching 250-300 cases annually, and motor vehicle theft remaining under 10 cases per year.
In summary, Beardstown has experienced a significant increase in property crimes, particularly larceny-theft, despite a declining population. The disproportionate rise in the city's share of state property crimes highlights the need for targeted interventions. The complex relationship between crime rates, population density, and home ownership suggests that multiple factors are influencing the city's property crime landscape, warranting a multifaceted approach to address these challenges in the coming years.
