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Property Crime Trends in Batavia, NY: A Decade of Significant Changes
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Batavia, a small city in New York State, has experienced notable changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 24.8%, from 516 to 388 incidents. This significant reduction occurred despite a slight population increase of 0.5% during the same period, from 15,582 to 15,510 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a considerable decline over time. In 2010, there were 88 burglaries reported, which decreased to 44 in 2022, representing a 50% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.65 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2.84 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated. It peaked at 0.39% in 2017 before declining to 0.19% in 2022, suggesting that Batavia's burglary reduction outpaced the state average in recent years.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a downward trend. Incidents decreased from 419 in 2010 to 334 in 2022, a 20.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 26.89 to 21.53 over the same period. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases decreased from 0.24% in 2010 to 0.17% in 2022, indicating a faster reduction compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. The number of incidents increased from 9 in 2010 to 10 in 2022, a slight 11.1% increase. However, when accounting for population changes, the rate per 1,000 people remained relatively stable, moving from 0.58 to 0.64. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.06% to 0.05% during this period, suggesting that while local rates remained steady, state rates may have increased slightly.
Arson cases in the city have shown significant volatility. From 3 cases in 2010, the number doubled to 6 in 2022. This translates to an increase from 0.19 to 0.39 cases per 1,000 people. More strikingly, the city's contribution to state arson cases rose dramatically from 0.53% in 2010 to 1.29% in 2022, indicating a concerning trend that outpaces state averages.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $46,245 in 2013 to $56,584 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 559 to 388. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. By 2029, five years from now, we project total property crimes could fall to approximately 340 incidents per year, assuming current socioeconomic trends persist.
In conclusion, Batavia has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. However, the rise in arson cases presents a challenge that may require targeted intervention. The city's overall property crime reduction, outpacing state averages in several categories, suggests effective local strategies in crime prevention and community safety.
