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Property Crime Trends in Barnsdall, Oklahoma: A City with Declining Burglary Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Barnsdall, Oklahoma, a small city with a population that grew from 1,656 to 1,760 residents between 2016 and 2022, has experienced notable changes in its property crime landscape. During this period, the total number of property crimes decreased by 26.32%, from 19 to 14 incidents, despite the population increase of 6.28%. This trend suggests an overall improvement in the city's safety with regard to property-related offenses.
Burglary rates in Barnsdall have shown a significant downward trend. The number of burglaries dropped from 9 in 2016 to 3 in 2022, representing a substantial 66.67% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 5.43 in 2016 to 1.70 in 2022. Interestingly, while the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated initially, it has stabilized at 0.02% from 2018 to 2022, indicating a consistent contribution to state burglary figures in recent years despite the overall decrease in incidents.
Larceny-theft, another component of property crime, has shown more stability with a slight upward trend. The number of larceny-theft incidents increased from 9 in 2016 to 11 in 2022, a 22.22% rise. The rate per 1,000 people also saw a small increase from 5.43 in 2016 to 6.25 in 2022. Notably, Barnsdall's percentage of state larceny-theft incidents doubled from 0.01% in 2016 to 0.02% in 2022, suggesting a growing contribution to state larceny-theft figures relative to its population size.
Motor vehicle theft in Barnsdall has shown a remarkable improvement. From a single incident in 2016 (0.60 per 1,000 people), the city reported zero cases from 2019 to 2022. This positive trend is reflected in the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts, which decreased from 0.01% in 2016 to 0% in recent years.
Arson cases in Barnsdall have also seen a significant reduction. In 2016, there were 3 arson incidents (1.81 per 1,000 people), accounting for 0.58% of state arson cases. However, from 2019 to 2022, the city reported zero arson cases, effectively eliminating its contribution to state arson figures in recent years.
An analysis of socioeconomic factors reveals a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates in Barnsdall. As the median income increased from $41,293 in 2016 to $55,559 in 2022, the total property crime incidents decreased from 19 to 14. This correlation suggests that improving economic conditions may have played a role in reducing property crimes within the city.
Looking ahead, predictive models forecast a continued decrease in property crime for Barnsdall. Based on current socioeconomic trends and the overall decreasing pattern observed from 2016 to 2022, it is estimated that by 2029, the city may experience a further reduction in total property crimes to approximately 10-12 incidents annually.
In conclusion, Barnsdall, Oklahoma has demonstrated positive trends in property crime reduction, particularly in burglary, motor vehicle theft, and arson. While larceny-theft has seen a slight increase, the overall property crime situation has improved. The correlation between rising median income and decreasing crime rates suggests that continued economic growth could further contribute to crime reduction. If these trends persist, Barnsdall is positioned for a potentially safer future with lower property crime rates.
