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Property Crime Trends in Baldwin Park: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Decrease
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Baldwin Park, a city in California, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates and population over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in the city decreased by 37.1%, from 1,752 to 1,102 incidents. During this same period, the population declined by 8%, from 75,496 to 69,450 residents. This juxtaposition of decreasing crime rates against a backdrop of population decline presents an intriguing scenario for analysis.
Burglary trends in the city show a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 306 burglaries, which decreased to 205 in 2022, representing a 33% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 4.05 in 2010 to 2.95 in 2022, a 27.2% decrease. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.17% in 2010, peaking at 0.23% in 2016, and settling at 0.18% in 2022. This trend suggests that while burglaries have decreased overall, the city's contribution to state burglaries has remained relatively stable.
Larceny theft also showed a downward trend. In 2010, there were 940 incidents, which decreased to 613 in 2022, a 34.8% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 12.45 in 2010 to 8.83 in 2022, a 29.1% decrease. The city's proportion of state larceny thefts declined from 0.18% in 2010 to 0.12% in 2022, indicating that larceny theft in the city has decreased more rapidly than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited a significant decrease over the period. From 506 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 284 in 2022, a 43.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 6.70 in 2010 to 4.09 in 2022, a 39% decline. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.40% in 2010 to 0.19% in 2022, suggesting a substantial improvement relative to state trends.
Arson cases fluctuated over the years but showed an overall increase. From 11 incidents in 2010, the number rose to 17 in 2022, a 54.5% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.15 in 2010 to 0.24 in 2022, a 60% rise. Notably, the city's proportion of state arsons increased dramatically from 0.18% in 2010 to 0.27% in 2022, indicating a concerning trend that diverges from the overall property crime reduction.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $49,755 in 2013 to $70,418 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models based on current trends, we can forecast that by 2029, property crime rates may continue to decrease slightly, potentially reaching around 1,000 incidents annually. However, the rising trend in arson cases could offset some of these gains if not addressed.
In conclusion, Baldwin Park has shown significant improvement in most property crime categories over the past decade, with notable reductions in burglary, larceny theft, and motor vehicle theft. The inverse correlation between rising median income and falling crime rates suggests that economic factors play a crucial role in crime reduction. However, the increasing trend in arson cases presents a challenge that requires focused attention. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining economic growth and addressing specific crime categories like arson will be key to sustaining and improving upon the overall positive trends in property crime reduction.
