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Property Crime Trends in Baker, Montana: A Decade of Declining Incidents
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Baker, Montana, a small community with a population of 1,834 as of 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased from 20 to 11, representing a 45% reduction. During this same period, the population declined slightly from 1,988 to 1,834, a decrease of about 7.7%.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 3 burglaries reported, which decreased to 0 by 2022. This represents a 100% reduction in burglary incidents. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people dropped from 1.51 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.16% in 2010 to 0% in 2022. This substantial decline in burglaries suggests improved security measures or changes in local crime patterns.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed a decrease from 16 incidents in 2010 to 10 in 2022, a 37.5% reduction. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 people decreased from 8.05 to 5.45 during this period. Despite this decrease, the city's contribution to state larceny thefts actually decreased from 0.14% in 2010 to 0.08% in 2022, indicating that the reduction in larceny thefts was less pronounced than in other parts of the state.
Motor vehicle theft incidents fluctuated over the years, starting with 1 incident in 2010 and ending with 1 incident in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people remained relatively stable, changing from 0.50 to 0.55 over the 12-year period. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 0.13% to 0.06%, suggesting that while the absolute number remained the same, the city's contribution to state totals decreased.
Arson incidents were consistently reported as 0 throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This suggests that arson has not been a significant concern for the city over the past decade.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $53,896 in 2013 to $72,193 in 2022, property crime incidents generally decreased. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the overall property crime rate to continue its gradual decline. Based on the current trends, it's projected that by 2029, the total number of property crimes could decrease to around 8-9 incidents per year. Larceny theft is likely to remain the most common property crime, potentially accounting for 6-7 of these incidents. Burglary and motor vehicle theft rates are expected to remain low, possibly fluctuating between 0-1 incidents per year.
In summary, Baker has experienced a notable decrease in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny thefts. This improvement in public safety, coupled with rising median incomes, suggests a positive trajectory for the community. The consistent absence of arson incidents and the low rates of motor vehicle theft contribute to a generally safer environment for residents. As the city moves forward, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for its continued development and the well-being of its citizens.
