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Property Crime Trends in Baird, Texas: A Decade of Improvement Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Baird, Texas, a small community with a population of 2,059 in 2022, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes varied significantly, ranging from a low of 5 in 2011 to a high of 34 in 2014. By 2022, property crimes had decreased to 12, marking a 29.4% reduction from 2010. During this period, the population grew by 11.3%, from 1,850 in 2010 to 2,059 in 2022.
Burglary trends in the city have shown considerable variation. In 2010, there were 6 burglaries, which peaked at 16 in 2014 before declining to 6 in 2022. The burglary rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 3.24 in 2010 to a high of 8.01 in 2014, settling at 2.91 in 2022. This represents a 10.2% decrease in the burglary rate over the 12-year period. The city's contribution to state burglaries remained minimal, consistently at or below 0.01% throughout the period, indicating that burglaries in this small community had little impact on statewide figures.
Larceny theft trends followed a similar pattern of fluctuation. Starting with 10 incidents in 2010, larceny thefts reached a peak of 18 in 2014 before decreasing to 5 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people varied from 5.41 in 2010 to 9.01 in 2014, ultimately dropping to 2.43 in 2022, representing a 55.1% decrease over the period. The city's contribution to state larceny thefts remained consistently at 0.0%, underscoring the minimal impact of these local crimes on statewide statistics.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed an intriguing trend. From a single incident in 2010, motor vehicle thefts increased to 10 in 2020 before decreasing to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.54 in 2010 to a peak of 4.92 in 2020, then fell to 0.49 in 2022. Despite this fluctuation, the city's contribution to state motor vehicle thefts remained minimal, peaking at 0.01% in several years, including 2020.
Arson cases in the city were sporadic, with no clear trend. Years 2014, 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2020 each reported a single arson case, while other years reported none. The arson rate per 1,000 people in years with incidents ranged from 0.47 to 0.50. The city's contribution to state arson cases was relatively higher compared to other property crimes, reaching 0.06% in 2018, which suggests that even a single arson case in this small community could have a noticeable impact on state statistics.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $43,052 in 2013 to $51,467 in 2022, overall property crime rates showed a general downward trend, despite some fluctuations. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between the Hispanic population percentage and property crime rates. As the Hispanic population grew from 12% in 2013 to 14% in 2022, property crime rates showed some increase, though this correlation is not strong enough to suggest causation.
Applying predictive models based on recent trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Baird may experience a slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglaries and larceny thefts are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching single-digit occurrences annually. Motor vehicle thefts may stabilize at very low levels, likely between 1-3 incidents per year. Arson cases are expected to remain sporadic, with years of no incidents interspersed with occasional single cases.
In summary, Baird has shown resilience in managing property crime over the past decade. Despite population growth, the community has seen a general decrease in property crime rates across most categories. The city's contribution to state crime statistics remains minimal, reflecting its small size. The inverse relationship between rising median income and declining crime rates suggests potential economic factors influencing crime trends. As Baird continues to evolve, maintaining focus on economic development and community engagement may help sustain and improve upon these positive trends in property crime reduction.
