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Property Crime Trends in Azusa: A Decade of Change Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Azusa, located in California, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 1,136 in 2010 and ending at 991 in 2022, representing a 12.76% decrease. During this same period, the population grew from 47,808 to 50,758, an increase of 6.17%. This juxtaposition of decreasing crime rates against a growing population sets the stage for a deeper analysis of specific property crime categories.
Burglary incidents in the city showed a significant downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 276 burglaries, which decreased to 180 by 2022, marking a 34.78% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 5.77 in 2010 to 3.55 in 2022, a substantial improvement in public safety. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.13% and 0.17% throughout the period, suggesting that the local trend aligns with broader state patterns.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, exhibited a less pronounced decline. From 731 incidents in 2010, the number decreased to 630 in 2022, a 13.82% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 15.29 to 12.41 over the same period. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures remained consistent, hovering around 0.12% to 0.14%, indicating that the local trend mirrors state-level changes.
Motor vehicle theft presented a more complex pattern. Starting at 129 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 223 in 2017 before decreasing to 181 in 2022, resulting in a net increase of 40.31% over the entire period. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 2.70 in 2010 to 3.57 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.10% to 0.12%, suggesting a slightly higher local growth rate compared to the state average.
Arson cases, while fewer in number, showed significant volatility. From just 1 incident in 2010, the number peaked at 14 in 2017 before settling at 12 in 2020 (2022 data unavailable). This represents a 1100% increase from 2010 to 2020. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.02 in 2010 to 0.24 in 2020. The city's contribution to state arson figures rose dramatically from 0.02% to 0.12% over this period, indicating a local trend that outpaced the state average.
Examining correlations, a notable relationship emerges between property crime trends and median income. As median income rose from $60,705 in 2013 to $71,260 in 2022, an increase of 17.39%, the overall property crime rate decreased. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to maintain their downward trajectories, potentially reaching rates of 3.0 and 11.0 per 1,000 residents, respectively, by 2029. Motor vehicle theft may stabilize around 3.5 per 1,000 residents, while arson cases are projected to remain low but volatile.
In summary, Azusa has demonstrated a generally positive trend in property crime reduction despite population growth. The significant decrease in burglaries and larceny-theft, coupled with rising median incomes, suggests improving community safety and economic conditions. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts and the volatility in arson cases highlight areas requiring continued attention from law enforcement and community leaders. These trends, when viewed in the context of stable or slightly increasing shares of state crime figures, indicate that the city is generally keeping pace with or outperforming state-wide crime reduction efforts in most categories.
