Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Aurora, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Aurora, Missouri, experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates between 2010 and 2022, alongside a notable population growth. The total number of property crimes decreased from 381 in 2010 to 154 in 2022, representing a 59.6% reduction. During the same period, the population increased from 8,619 to 9,659, a growth of 12.1%.
Burglary rates in the city showed a general downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 83 burglaries, which decreased to 30 by 2022, a 63.9% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 9.63 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 3.11 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.62% in 2021 before dropping to 0.23% in 2022. This overall decline in burglaries suggests improved security measures or law enforcement effectiveness.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a decreasing trend. In 2010, there were 285 larceny-thefts, which decreased to 106 in 2022, a 62.8% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 33.06 in 2010 to 10.97 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, averaging around 0.25-0.30% throughout most of the period, with a slight decrease to 0.14% in 2022. This consistent decline in larceny-theft rates indicates improved community vigilance or successful crime prevention strategies.
Motor vehicle theft rates fluctuated over the years but showed an overall increase. In 2010, there were 13 motor vehicle thefts, which increased to 18 in 2022, a 38.5% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose slightly from 1.51 in 2010 to 1.86 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied, reaching a high of 0.22% in 2012 and ending at 0.07% in 2022. This upward trend in motor vehicle thefts, despite overall decreases in other property crimes, may indicate a need for targeted prevention efforts in this area.
Arson cases in the city remained relatively low but showed some volatility. The number of arsons ranged from 0 to 6 per year, with the highest count of 6 occurring in 2019. The rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.63 in 2019 and dropped to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state arsons fluctuated significantly, reaching a high of 1.01% in 2019 before falling to 0% in 2022. These fluctuations, while numerically small, represent significant percentage changes due to the low base numbers.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,368 per square mile in 2010 to 1,533 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between the percentage of white residents and property crime rates, as both showed a slight decline over the years.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's forecasted that by 2029, property crime rates in Aurora may continue to decline, potentially reaching around 100-120 total property crimes per year. Burglaries and larceny-thefts are expected to maintain their downward trend, while motor vehicle thefts might stabilize or slightly increase.
In summary, Aurora has shown a significant overall reduction in property crime rates despite population growth. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and larceny-theft rates, while motor vehicle thefts have seen a slight increase. These trends suggest effective crime prevention strategies in certain areas, but also highlight the need for continued vigilance, particularly in addressing motor vehicle thefts. The city's changing demographics and increasing population density appear to have some influence on crime rates, indicating the importance of adapting crime prevention strategies to the evolving urban landscape.
