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Property Crime Trends in Atlantic Beach: Coastal Town Sees Significant Decrease
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Atlantic Beach, located in North Carolina, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in this coastal community decreased significantly by 62.1%, from 190 to 72 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred alongside a slight population decrease of 5.9%, from 1,919 to 1,807 residents over the same period.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 59 burglaries, which decreased to 20 by 2022, representing a 66.1% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 30.7 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 11.1 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries actually decreased slightly from 0.11% to 0.08%, suggesting that burglary rates may have decreased even more rapidly in other parts of North Carolina.
Larceny theft also experienced a significant decline. In 2010, there were 129 larceny thefts, which dropped to 46 by 2022, a 64.3% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 67.2 in 2010 to 25.5 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft figures decreased from 0.1% to 0.04%, indicating that the reduction in larceny theft in Atlantic Beach outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. There were 2 incidents in 2010, peaking at 8 in 2014, before settling at 6 in 2022. This represents a 200% increase over the period, though the small numbers make percentage changes less meaningful. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.0 in 2010 to 3.3 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.02% to 0.04%, suggesting that this type of crime has become relatively more prevalent in Atlantic Beach compared to the state average.
Arson incidents have remained low and sporadic. There were no reported arsons in 2010, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, and 2018. In years when arsons were reported, the number never exceeded 2. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated between 0 and 1.1. The city's share of state arsons varied but remained relatively low, reaching a maximum of 0.22% in 2011.
A strong correlation exists between property crime trends and home ownership rates. As the percentage of owner-occupied homes increased from 53% in 2015 to 68% in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 145 to 72. This suggests that higher home ownership rates may contribute to reduced property crime, possibly due to increased community investment and vigilance.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a continued decline in overall property crime rates. By 2029, five years from now, total property crimes are projected to decrease further to approximately 50-60 incidents per year, assuming current trends and community factors remain stable.
In summary, Atlantic Beach has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crime from 2010 to 2022, with particularly notable decreases in burglary and larceny theft. This positive trend, coupled with increasing home ownership rates, suggests an improving security situation in the community. However, the slight increase in motor vehicle thefts warrants continued attention from local law enforcement.
