Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a volatile trend but ultimately decreased from 59 incidents in 2010 to 24 in 2022, a 59.32% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 3.63 to 1.57. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 0.60% in 2010, dropping to a low of 0.16% in 2019, and then rising to 0.37% by 2022. This indicates that while progress has been made, motor vehicle theft remains a concern relative to state levels.

Arson cases in the city have remained relatively low but fluctuated over the years. From 2 incidents in 2010 to 1 in 2022, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased slightly from 0.12 to 0.07. The city's contribution to state arson cases varied considerably, peaking at 1.90% in 2017 before dropping to 0.69% in 2022. This volatility suggests that arson, while not a widespread issue, requires ongoing vigilance.

Examining correlations reveals interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes coincides with a significant increase in median income, rising from $40,551 in 2013 to $58,912 in 2022. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units increased from 19% in 2013 to 31% in 2022. These trends suggest that improving economic conditions and higher rates of homeownership may contribute to reduced property crime rates.

Racial demographics also shifted during this period, with the white population increasing from 21% in 2013 to 38% in 2022, while the black population decreased from 43% to 34%. The Hispanic population also saw a decrease from 32% to 21%. These demographic changes correlate with the overall reduction in property crimes, though it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), Asbury Park may see further reductions in property crimes. Burglaries could potentially decrease to around 60-70 incidents per year, larceny-theft might drop to approximately 350-400 cases, and motor vehicle thefts could stabilize at 15-20 incidents annually. Arson cases are likely to remain low, potentially averaging 1-2 incidents per year.

In conclusion, Asbury Park has made significant strides in reducing property crimes over the past decade. The city's evolving demographics, improving economic indicators, and increasing homeownership rates appear to correlate with these positive trends. While challenges remain, particularly in maintaining low rates of motor vehicle theft and arson relative to state levels, the overall trajectory suggests a safer community with declining property crime rates.