Motor vehicle theft exhibited an upward trend, increasing from 3 incidents in 2012 to 5 in 2018, a 66.67% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 1.52 to 2.31. More significantly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts doubled from 0.03% to 0.06%, indicating a substantial increase relative to state trends.

Arson data was limited, with zero incidents reported in 2012, 2016, 2017, and 2018, and no data available for 2013. This suggests that arson is not a significant concern in the city.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $18,917 in 2013 to $36,896 in 2018, total property crimes decreased from 124 to 32. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between decreasing home ownership rates and declining property crime. The percentage of owner-occupied homes fell from 80% in 2013 to 64% in 2018, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching historic lows. However, motor vehicle theft may continue its upward trajectory, possibly becoming a more significant concern for local law enforcement.

In conclusion, Arlington has experienced a general decline in property crime rates over the observed period, with the exception of motor vehicle theft. The inverse relationship between rising median income and decreasing crime rates suggests improving economic conditions may be contributing to reduced criminal activity. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts and the city's growing share of state-wide incidents in this category warrant attention from local authorities.