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Property Crime Trends in Argo, Alabama: A Decade of Change in a Growing Community
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Argo, Alabama, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a peak of 44 incidents in 2016 and a low of 15 in 2022, representing a 65.9% decrease over this period. Concurrently, the population grew from 4,095 in 2010 to 5,085 in 2022, a 24.2% increase, adding complexity to the crime rate analysis.
Burglary trends in the city show a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 10 burglaries, which increased to 18 in 2011 and 2016, but then sharply decreased to just 2 in 2022. This represents an 80% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When considering population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 2.44 in 2010 to 0.39 in 2022, a significant improvement. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.09% in 2016 before dropping to 0.02% in 2022, indicating a relative improvement compared to statewide trends.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown variability but an overall decreasing trend. From 8 cases in 2010, it peaked at 21 in 2011, then gradually decreased to 10 in 2022, a 25% reduction over the entire period. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.95 in 2010 to 1.97 in 2022, showing a relatively stable trend when accounting for population growth. The city's percentage of state larceny-theft cases increased slightly from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022, suggesting a minor increase in the city's contribution to statewide larceny-theft incidents.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively stable, with some fluctuations. There were 3 incidents in 2010, peaking at 6 in 2016 and 2021, before returning to 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents remained almost unchanged, from 0.73 in 2010 to 0.59 in 2022. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022, indicating a slight decrease in the city's contribution to statewide incidents.
Arson data is limited, with only two years reporting incidents: 0 in 2011 and 1 in 2021. This sparse data makes it difficult to establish clear trends or meaningful comparisons over time.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes from 2016 to 2022 coincides with a significant increase in median income, from $79,066 in 2016 to $84,807 in 2022. This suggests a potential negative correlation between income levels and property crime rates. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing remained consistently high, around 90-93% throughout the period, which may contribute to the overall low crime rates and their downward trend.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the observed trends, we can project that burglaries may further decrease to near zero, larceny-theft incidents could stabilize around 8-10 cases annually, and motor vehicle thefts might remain in the 2-4 range per year.
In summary, Argo has experienced a significant overall decrease in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, despite population growth. The most notable improvements are in burglary rates, while larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft have shown more modest declines. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and high rates of home ownership, paint a picture of a community that has made substantial progress in reducing property crime. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.
