Motor vehicle theft showed an increase over time. From zero incidents in 2010-2012, it rose to 2 cases in 2020 and remained at that level through 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0 to 1.09 between 2010 and 2022. Despite this increase, the city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics remained at 0%, suggesting that this crime type, while growing locally, is not significant at the state level.

Arson cases in the city have been rare. There was one reported case in 2010, representing 0.02% of state arsons, but no cases were reported in subsequent years. This indicates that arson is not a prevalent issue in the community.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime trends and demographic changes. As the population decreased by 4.62% from 2010 to 2022, the overall property crime rate increased. This suggests that factors other than population size may be influencing crime rates. The median income increased from $46,760 in 2013 to $53,854 in 2022, which could potentially impact property crime trends, although the correlation is not strong enough to draw definitive conclusions.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029, Archer City may see a slight increase in overall property crimes if current trends continue. Burglaries and motor vehicle thefts might show modest increases, while larceny-theft could stabilize or decrease slightly.

In summary, Archer City has experienced varying trends across different types of property crimes over the past decade. While some categories like motor vehicle theft have seen increases, others like larceny-theft have decreased. The city's contribution to state-level crime statistics remains minimal across all categories. These trends, coupled with demographic changes, paint a complex picture of property crime in this small Texas community, highlighting the need for tailored local strategies to address specific crime types.