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Property Crime Trends in Arcadia, California: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Arcadia, located in California, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 1,737 in 2010 and ending at 1,653 in 2022, representing a slight decrease of 4.8% over this period. Interestingly, this occurred against a backdrop of population growth, with the city's population increasing from 60,423 in 2010 to 61,878 in 2022, a growth of 2.4%.
The trend in burglaries shows significant fluctuations over the years. In 2010, there were 364 burglaries, which peaked at 520 in 2016, before declining to 390 in 2022. This represents a 7.1% increase from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 6.02 in 2010 to 6.30 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries rose dramatically from 0.2% in 2010 to 0.33% in 2022, indicating that burglaries in the city grew at a faster rate than the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime, showed a decreasing trend. In 2010, there were 1,267 incidents, which decreased to 1,147 in 2022, a 9.5% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people also decreased from 20.97 in 2010 to 18.54 in 2022. However, the city's share of state larceny thefts decreased slightly from 0.25% in 2010 to 0.23% in 2022, suggesting that the reduction in larceny theft was less pronounced than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited an increase over the period. In 2010, there were 106 incidents, which rose to 116 in 2022, a 9.4% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 1.75 in 2010 to 1.87 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, moving from 0.08% in 2010 to 0.08% in 2022, indicating that the increase in motor vehicle thefts was consistent with state trends.
Arson cases in the city doubled from 3 incidents in 2010 to 6 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.05 in 2010 to 0.10 in 2022. More significantly, the city's share of state arsons increased from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.1% in 2022, suggesting that arson incidents in the city grew at a faster rate than the state average.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $97,699 in 2013 to $98,999 in 2022, overall property crime rates showed a general downward trend. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between population density and property crime rates, with both showing slight increases over the study period.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now) suggests a potential continuation of recent patterns. Burglaries and motor vehicle thefts may continue to show slight increases, while larceny theft could maintain its downward trend. Arson cases, despite their low numbers, might continue to rise at a faster rate than other property crimes.
In conclusion, Arcadia's property crime landscape presents a mixed picture. While overall property crime has slightly decreased, individual categories show varying trends. The city's increasing share of state burglaries and arsons, coupled with the rise in motor vehicle thefts, suggests areas for focused crime prevention efforts. These trends, set against the backdrop of population growth and increasing median income, underscore the complex interplay between socioeconomic factors and crime rates in Arcadia.
