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Property Crime Trends in Aransas Pass: A Coastal Texas City's Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Aransas Pass, located in Texas, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, total property crimes decreased by 60.1%, from 611 to 244 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 0.6%, from 12,579 to 12,658 residents, indicating a significant improvement in property crime rates relative to population growth.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 184 burglaries, which decreased to 53 in 2022, representing a 71.2% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 14.6 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 4.2 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.1% in 2010, dropping to 0.07% in 2011, then rising to 0.13% in 2014 before settling at 0.07% in 2022. This trend suggests that while burglaries have decreased locally, the reduction has been somewhat in line with state-wide trends.
Larceny-theft incidents also demonstrated a downward trend. In 2010, there were 414 larceny-thefts, which decreased to 166 in 2022, a 59.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 32.9 in 2010 to 13.1 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.04% and 0.08% throughout the period. This indicates that the city's larceny-theft reduction has been generally consistent with state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft showed a more complex pattern. There were 13 incidents in 2010, which increased to 25 in 2022, representing a 92.3% increase. However, when adjusted for population, the rate increased from 1.0 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2.0 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022, peaking at 0.06% in 2018. This suggests that motor vehicle theft has become a growing concern relative to other property crimes in the city.
Arson cases in the city have remained relatively low but variable. There were 3 incidents in 2010, which decreased to 0 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.24 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's proportion of state arsons fluctuated significantly, ranging from 0% to 0.12% over the years, indicating that arson incidents, while infrequent, have had a varying impact on the state's total.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $51,863 in 2013 to $55,848 in 2022, there was a general decrease in property crimes, suggesting a possible negative correlation between income and property crime rates. Additionally, the Hispanic population percentage increased from 35% in 2013 to 42% in 2022, while the white population decreased from 61% to 50% during the same period. This demographic shift coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, though a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further analysis.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decrease in property crimes. Based on the current trends, we might expect burglaries to continue declining, potentially reaching around 30-35 incidents per year; larceny-theft to further decrease to approximately 120-140 incidents annually; motor vehicle theft to potentially stabilize or slightly increase to 27-30 incidents per year; and arson cases to remain very low, likely between 0-2 incidents annually.
In conclusion, Aransas Pass has shown significant improvement in overall property crime rates despite population growth. The most notable reductions have been in burglary and larceny-theft, while motor vehicle theft has emerged as a growing concern. These trends, coupled with demographic changes and economic improvements, paint a picture of a city that has made strides in combating property crime. However, continued vigilance and targeted strategies will be crucial to maintain and further improve these positive trends in the coming years.
