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Property Crime Trends in Apopka: A Decade of Growth and Change
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Apopka, located in Florida, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates alongside substantial population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with 1,411 incidents in 2010 rising to a peak of 2,008 in 2016, before settling at 1,579 in 2022, representing an overall increase of 11.9%. During this same period, the population grew from 61,296 to 80,124, a robust increase of 30.7%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend over time. In 2010, there were 406 burglaries, which decreased to 281 by 2022, a 30.8% reduction. When considering population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents dropped even more significantly, from 6.62 in 2010 to 3.51 in 2022, a 47% decrease. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.45% in 2010 to 2.77% in 2022, suggesting a disproportionate improvement compared to the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed more variability. The number of incidents increased from 929 in 2010 to 1,178 in 2022, a 26.8% rise. However, when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased slightly from 15.16 to 14.70, a 3% drop. The city's share of state larceny thefts grew from 0.35% to 1.66% over this period, indicating a higher relative incidence compared to the state trend.
Motor vehicle theft in the city saw an increase from 76 incidents in 2010 to 120 in 2022, a 57.9% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.24 to 1.50, a 21% increase despite population growth. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew significantly from 0.32% to 1.67%, suggesting a concerning trend relative to state figures.
Arson cases in the city fluctuated over the years but showed an overall decrease. From 4 incidents in 2010, the number dropped to 0 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.065 to 0, and the city's share of state arsons fell from 0.34% to 0%. This indicates a positive trend in arson prevention and control within the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As population density increased from 1,766 per square mile in 2010 to 2,309 in 2022, there was a corresponding rise in overall property crime rates, suggesting a potential link between urbanization and crime. Additionally, the shift in racial demographics, with the white population decreasing from 52% in 2013 to 41% in 2022 and the Hispanic population increasing from 25% to 30%, coincided with changes in crime patterns, though causation cannot be inferred.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary rates are expected to continue their downward trend, while larceny theft and motor vehicle theft may see moderate increases in line with population growth projections.
In summary, Apopka has experienced a complex evolution of property crime trends amidst significant population growth. While burglary and arson rates have improved, larceny theft and motor vehicle theft present ongoing challenges. The city's changing demographics and increasing urbanization appear to be influencing factors in these trends. As Apopka continues to grow, targeted strategies to address specific property crime categories, particularly larceny theft and motor vehicle theft, will be crucial in maintaining and improving public safety.
