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Property Crime Trends in Apache, Oklahoma: A Study of Paradoxical Increases Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Apache, located in Oklahoma, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 16 in 2010 and ending at 23 in 2022, representing a 43.75% increase. During this same period, the population decreased from 2,013 in 2010 to 1,302 in 2022, a 35.32% decline, creating a complex dynamic between crime rates and demographic shifts.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 8 burglaries, which dropped to zero in 2012, before rising again to 15 in 2019, and finally settling at 6 in 2022. This represents a 25% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusting for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 3.97 in 2010 to 4.61 in 2022, indicating a higher concentration of burglaries despite the overall decrease in numbers. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.07% in 2019 and ending at 0.04% in 2022, suggesting a disproportionate impact on the state's burglary statistics relative to its population size.
Larceny theft showed a different pattern. Starting with 7 incidents in 2010, it doubled to 14 by 2022, a 100% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 3.48 in 2010 to 10.75 in 2022, a substantial increase in the likelihood of larceny theft for residents. The city's contribution to state larceny theft statistics grew from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022, indicating an increasing share of the state's larceny problem.
Motor vehicle theft trends revealed sporadic occurrences. From a single incident in 2010, the number fluctuated, reaching zero in some years and peaking at 4 in 2017, before settling at 3 in 2022. This represents a 200% increase over the period. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.50 in 2010 to 2.30 in 2022, reflecting a higher risk for residents despite the small numbers. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.01% to 0.03%, suggesting an outsized contribution relative to its population.
Arson incidents were rare, with only one reported case in 2015, representing 0.19% of state arsons that year. The lack of consistent arson data makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about trends or patterns.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between declining population density and increasing property crime rates. As the population density decreased from 938 per square mile in 2010 to 607 in 2022, property crimes per capita increased. Additionally, the rise in median income from $35,944 in 2013 to $44,700 in 2022 coincided with fluctuations in property crime, suggesting a complex relationship between economic factors and criminal activity.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual increase in overall property crimes, potentially reaching around 28-30 incidents annually. This projection assumes the continuation of current demographic and economic trends.
In summary, Apache has experienced a paradoxical increase in property crime rates despite a significant population decrease. The most striking discoveries include the substantial rise in larceny theft and motor vehicle theft rates when adjusted for population, and the city's growing share of state crime statistics in these categories. These trends suggest that while the absolute numbers of crimes may not seem high, the impact on the remaining population has intensified, potentially affecting the quality of life and safety perceptions in this small Oklahoma community.
