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Property Crime Trends in Annapolis: Capital City's Decade of Change
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Annapolis, the capital city of Maryland, has experienced notable shifts in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 28.4%, from 1,101 to 788 incidents. This reduction occurred alongside a population growth of 7.2%, from 34,819 to 37,340 residents during the same period.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 197 burglaries, which declined to 75 in 2022, representing a 61.9% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 5.66 to 2.01 per 1,000 residents. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries increased slightly from 1.56% to 1.66% over this period, suggesting that while burglaries decreased in Annapolis, they may have decreased at a faster rate elsewhere in Maryland.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a decline. The number of incidents dropped from 800 in 2010 to 644 in 2022, a 19.5% decrease. However, when considering population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased more substantially from 22.98 to 17.25. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents increased from 2.28% to 3.37%, indicating that this crime type may have decreased more rapidly in other parts of the state.
Motor vehicle theft in the city fluctuated over the years but ultimately decreased from 104 incidents in 2010 to 69 in 2022, a 33.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.99 to 1.85. Despite this decrease, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 1.68% to 1.71%, suggesting a slightly slower decline compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city showed a concerning upward trend. The number of incidents doubled from 9 in 2010 to 18 in 2022. When adjusted for population, the rate increased from 0.26 to 0.48 per 1,000 residents. More alarmingly, the city's contribution to state arson cases surged from 1.96% to 14.63%, indicating a significant increase in the city's arson problem relative to the rest of Maryland.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income rose from $84,440 in 2013 to $95,638 in 2022, overall property crime rates declined. Additionally, the increase in homeownership from 53% in 2013 to 60% in 2022 coincides with the decrease in property crimes, suggesting a potential link between stable communities and lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), overall property crime rates could continue to decrease by approximately 15-20% if current trends persist. However, the rising trend in arson cases is concerning and may require targeted intervention to prevent further increases.
In summary, Annapolis has made significant strides in reducing most types of property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The city's improving economic indicators, such as rising median income and homeownership rates, appear to correlate with these positive trends. However, the alarming increase in arson cases and the city's growing share of state property crimes in certain categories highlight areas that may require focused attention from law enforcement and community leaders to ensure continued improvement in public safety.
