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Property Crime Trends in Angier, NC: A Decade of Growth and Change
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Angier, located in North Carolina, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2011 to 2022, total property crimes increased by 18.2%, from 137 to 162 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 20.9%, from 11,621 to 14,049 residents, indicating that crime rates have not necessarily kept pace with population growth.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2011, there were 54 burglaries, which increased to 62 in 2016, then dropped to 47 in 2017. By 2022, burglaries rose sharply to 98 incidents. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 4.65 in 2011 to 6.98 in 2022, a 50.1% increase. The city's share of state burglaries also grew dramatically, from 0.1% in 2011 to 0.4% in 2022, suggesting a disproportionate increase compared to statewide trends.
Larceny theft rates have fluctuated but ultimately decreased over the observed period. In 2011, there were 78 larceny thefts, which declined to 59 in 2016, increased slightly to 69 in 2017, and then decreased to 63 in 2022. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 people dropped from 6.71 in 2011 to 4.48 in 2022, a 33.2% decrease. However, the city's percentage of state larceny thefts remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 0.06% in 2011 to 0.05% in 2022.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown inconsistent patterns. There were 5 incidents in 2011, increasing to 8 in 2016, then dropping to 4 in 2017, and finally decreasing to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.43 in 2011 to 0.07 in 2022, an 83.7% reduction. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also dropped significantly, from 0.05% in 2011 to 0.01% in 2022.
Arson data is limited, with no reported incidents in most years. However, there were 3 arsons in 2016 and 1 in 2022. The arson rate per 1,000 people in 2022 was 0.07. The city's percentage of state arsons increased from 0% in most years to 0.11% in 2022, indicating a slight uptick in the city's contribution to statewide arson incidents.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The increase in burglaries appears to have a moderate correlation with the growth in population density, which rose from 3,037 people per square mile in 2011 to 3,672 in 2022. Additionally, there seems to be a relationship between the rise in property ownership rates (from 71% in 2013 to 80% in 2022) and the increase in burglaries, possibly suggesting that more owned properties have become targets for theft.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend in burglaries, while larceny theft and motor vehicle theft rates may stabilize or slightly decrease. Arson incidents are expected to remain low but may occur sporadically.
In summary, Angier has experienced a complex evolution of property crime patterns over the past decade. The most significant changes include a substantial increase in burglaries, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of state incidents, contrasting with decreases in larceny theft and motor vehicle theft rates. These trends, coupled with the city's rapid population growth and increasing property ownership rates, present unique challenges for law enforcement and community safety initiatives in the coming years.
