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Property Crime Trends in Andrews, Texas: A Decade of Resilience Amidst Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Andrews, located in Texas, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates alongside significant population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 20.7%, from 242 to 192 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 29.8%, from 12,912 to 16,758 residents, indicating a divergence between crime rates and population growth.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 75 burglaries, which decreased to 22 in 2022, representing a 70.7% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people dropped from 5.81 in 2010 to 1.31 in 2022, a 77.4% decrease. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.04% in 2010, peaking at 0.06% in 2019, and settling at 0.03% in 2022. This trend suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in preventing burglaries.
Larceny-theft incidents have remained relatively stable despite population growth. In 2010, there were 159 cases, which decreased slightly to 154 in 2022, a 3.1% reduction. However, when considering population growth, the rate per 1,000 people decreased from 12.31 in 2010 to 9.19 in 2022, a 25.3% drop. The city's portion of state larceny-thefts increased from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022, indicating that while local rates decreased, they did not fall as rapidly as the state average.
Motor vehicle theft showed fluctuations over the years. From 8 incidents in 2010, it rose to a peak of 33 in 2014 before decreasing to 16 in 2022, representing a net increase of 100% over the period. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.62 in 2010 to 0.95 in 2022, a 53.2% rise. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022, suggesting that this type of crime became relatively more prevalent in the city compared to state trends.
Arson cases in the city have remained low but variable. From 2 incidents in 2010, the number fluctuated, reaching a high of 4 in 2013 and 2016, before settling at 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.15 in 2010 to 0.06 in 2022, a 60% reduction. The city's portion of state arsons varied significantly, from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.15% in 2016, ending at 0.05% in 2022. These fluctuations, given the low numbers, may not indicate a significant trend but rather the sporadic nature of arson in small communities.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates. As population density increased from 1,857 per square mile in 2010 to 2,411 in 2022, overall property crime rates declined. This suggests that increased urbanization may have contributed to improved security and community vigilance.
Applying predictive models based on current trends, it's projected that by 2029, property crime rates in Andrews may continue to decline slightly, potentially reaching around 170-180 incidents annually. Burglary rates are expected to stabilize at approximately 20-25 cases per year, while larceny-theft may see a modest decrease to around 140-150 incidents. Motor vehicle theft could potentially increase slightly to 18-20 cases annually, reflecting the upward trend observed in recent years.
In conclusion, Andrews has demonstrated a generally positive trend in property crime reduction despite significant population growth. The most notable improvements have been in burglary rates, while challenges remain in addressing motor vehicle thefts. These trends reflect the city's evolving urban landscape and suggest that continued focus on community-based crime prevention strategies could further enhance public safety in the coming years.
