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Property Crime Trends in Altoona: Industrial City's Shifting Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Altoona, Pennsylvania, a city with a rich industrial history, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of property crimes in Altoona decreased by 28.7%, from 947 to 675 incidents. During this same period, the city's population declined by 6.1%, from 46,806 to 43,968 residents, indicating a more substantial reduction in crime relative to population changes.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 294 burglaries, which decreased to 142 by 2019, representing a 51.7% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate dropped from 6.28 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 3.23 per 1,000 in 2019. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased significantly, from 1.15% in 2010 to 5.93% in 2019. This suggests that while the city improved its burglary situation, it outperformed the state average in this regard.
Larceny-theft incidents also decreased over the decade, though less dramatically than burglaries. In 2010, there were 616 larceny-thefts, which reduced to 481 by 2019, a 21.9% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 13.16 in 2010 to 10.94 in 2019. Similar to burglary, the city's share of state larceny-thefts increased from 0.79% to 5.14% over this period, indicating a relative improvement compared to state trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed more volatility but ultimately increased. In 2010, there were 37 motor vehicle thefts, which rose to 52 in 2019, a 40.5% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.79 in 2010 to 1.18 in 2019. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.35% to 5.28%, suggesting a significant shift in the city's contribution to state totals for this crime category.
Arson cases fluctuated over the years but showed a slight decrease overall. From 10 cases in 2010, the number dropped to 9 in 2019, a 10% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively stable, changing from 0.21 in 2010 to 0.20 in 2019. However, the city's share of state arson cases increased dramatically from 1.65% to 8.11%, indicating that arson reduction in Altoona was less pronounced compared to state-wide improvements.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 4,780 per square mile in 2010 to 4,490 in 2019, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. This suggests a potential link between population density and crime rates in the city. Additionally, the median income increased from $37,031 in 2013 to $43,082 in 2019, which coincided with the decline in burglary and larceny-theft rates, potentially indicating an inverse relationship between economic well-being and certain types of property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend in burglary and larceny-theft rates. However, motor vehicle theft is projected to continue its upward trajectory if current trends persist. Arson cases are expected to remain relatively stable but may show slight fluctuations.
In summary, Altoona has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. These improvements have outpaced state-wide trends, as evidenced by the city's increasing share of state crime totals. The correlation between declining population density, rising median income, and decreasing property crime rates suggests that demographic and economic factors play a role in the city's crime landscape. As Altoona continues to evolve, monitoring these trends will be crucial for maintaining and furthering the progress made in community safety and crime prevention.
