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Property Crime Trends in Alton, Illinois: A Decade of Change Along the Mississippi
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Alton, Illinois, a city along the Mississippi River, has experienced significant shifts in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 37.8%, from 1,265 to 787 incidents. This reduction occurred alongside a population decline of 9.1%, from 29,836 to 27,119 residents during the same period.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 292 burglaries, which decreased to 122 in 2022, representing a 58.2% reduction. When adjusted for population changes, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 9.79 in 2010 to 4.50 in 2022, a 54% decrease. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 0.54% in 2010 to 0.73% in 2022. This suggests that while burglary has declined locally, it has done so at a slower rate compared to the state average.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a significant decline. The number of larceny thefts dropped from 913 in 2010 to 509 in 2022, a 44.2% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 30.60 to 18.77, a 38.7% reduction. The city's contribution to state larceny thefts decreased slightly from 0.54% to 0.50% over this period, indicating that the local reduction in larceny theft was relatively in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft, however, presents a contrasting trend. The number of incidents increased from 60 in 2010 to 156 in 2022, a substantial 160% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents more than doubled from 2.01 to 5.75. Despite this local increase, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts only rose from 0.24% to 0.55%, suggesting that this trend may be part of a broader regional or state-wide phenomenon.
Arson cases in the city fluctuated but showed a slight decrease overall, from 12 incidents in 2010 to 10 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively stable, moving from 0.40 to 0.37. However, the city's share of state arson cases increased from 1.15% to 1.52%, indicating that arson declined more slowly in the city compared to the state average.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The rise in motor vehicle thefts coincides with a period of declining population density, which dropped from 1,903 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,730 in 2022. This could suggest that less densely populated areas might be more vulnerable to such crimes. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between the overall decrease in property crimes and the gradual increase in median income, which rose from $41,952 in 2013 to $47,897 in 2022. This might indicate that improved economic conditions could contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029, the city may see a further 15-20% decrease in burglaries and larceny thefts if current trends continue. However, motor vehicle thefts could potentially increase by another 30-40% if preventive measures are not implemented. Arson cases are likely to remain relatively stable but may fluctuate between 8-12 incidents annually.
In conclusion, Alton has made significant progress in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. However, the concerning rise in motor vehicle thefts presents a challenge that may require targeted interventions. The city's changing demographics and economic conditions appear to play a role in these trends, highlighting the complex interplay between socioeconomic factors and crime rates. As Alton moves forward, addressing the specific challenges posed by motor vehicle theft while maintaining the positive trends in other areas will be crucial for continued improvement in public safety and quality of life for its residents.
