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Property Crime Trends in Alliance, Nebraska: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Alliance, Nebraska, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, with a notable increase from 154 in 2010 to 131 in 2022, representing a 14.94% decrease. During this same period, the population experienced a slight decline, from 9,039 in 2010 to 8,878 in 2022, a decrease of 1.78%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown considerable volatility. In 2010, there were 31 burglaries, which increased to 57 in 2013, before dropping to 17 in 2022. This represents a 45.16% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 3.43 in 2010 to 1.91 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated dramatically, from 0.47% in 2010 to a peak of 11.91% in 2021, before settling at 0.58% in 2022. This suggests that while local burglary rates have generally improved, there were periods where the city experienced disproportionate burglary issues compared to the rest of the state.
Larceny-theft trends show a different pattern. The number of incidents decreased from 114 in 2010 to 105 in 2022, a 7.89% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people slightly decreased from 12.61 in 2010 to 11.83 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-thefts increased from 0.36% in 2010 to 0.43% in 2022, indicating that while local rates improved, they did not keep pace with state-wide improvements.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained relatively stable, with 9 incidents in 2010 and 9 in 2022. However, due to the population decrease, the rate per 1,000 people slightly increased from 1.00 in 2010 to 1.01 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.29% in 2010 to 0.18% in 2022, suggesting that the city maintained better control over this crime compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic, with most years reporting either zero or one incident. The rate per 1,000 people remained consistently low, ranging from 0 to 0.11. The city's share of state arsons fluctuated between 0% and 0.73%, with the highest percentage recorded in 2022.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $48,178 in 2013 to $65,333 in 2022, overall property crime rates generally decreased. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between home ownership rates and crime rates. As the percentage of owner-occupied homes increased from 63% in 2013 to 72% in 2022, property crime rates tended to decrease.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary rates are expected to stabilize around 1.5 per 1,000 people, while larceny-theft may continue to decrease to about 10 per 1,000 people. Motor vehicle theft rates are projected to remain stable at around 1 per 1,000 people, and arson cases are expected to remain sporadic and low.
In summary, Alliance has shown overall improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The correlations between rising median income, increased home ownership, and declining crime rates suggest that economic stability plays a crucial role in crime reduction. While challenges remain, the city's trajectory indicates a positive trend in managing property crime, positioning it for continued improvement in the coming years.
