Motor vehicle theft in Aliquippa showed a slight decrease, from 16 incidents in 2010 to 14 in 2020, a 12.5% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively stable, changing from 1.64 in 2010 to 1.54 in 2020. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased dramatically from 0.15% in 2010 to 9.86% in 2020, suggesting that while Aliquippa maintained relatively consistent levels of motor vehicle theft, it became a more significant contributor to state totals.

Arson data for Aliquippa is limited, with only two years reporting incidents: one case in 2011 and one in 2020. This scarcity of data makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.

An examination of correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes coincides with a gradual increase in median income, rising from $43,874 in 2013 to $57,494 in 2022. This suggests a potential inverse relationship between economic improvement and property crime rates. The racial composition of the city remained relatively stable during this period, with the white population fluctuating between 55% and 58%, and the black population between 34% and 39%. This stability in racial demographics indicates that changes in crime rates are likely influenced by factors other than racial composition.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, burglary rates are expected to stabilize around 20-25 incidents per year, larceny-theft cases to remain in the 60-70 range annually, and motor vehicle thefts to hover around 12-15 incidents per year. These predictions assume the continuation of current socioeconomic trends and law enforcement strategies.

In summary, Aliquippa has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This improvement has occurred against a backdrop of slight population decline and increasing median income. However, the city's contribution to state-wide crime statistics has increased, suggesting that while progress has been made locally, it may not have kept pace with improvements seen in other parts of Pennsylvania. The relationship between economic factors and crime rates in Aliquippa underscores the complex interplay between socioeconomic conditions and public safety, highlighting the need for continued focus on both economic development and crime prevention strategies.