Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 270 motor vehicle thefts, which increased to 340 by 2022, representing a 25.93% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 3.24 in 2010 to 4.24 in 2022. Moreover, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.21% to 0.22%, suggesting that this trend may be outpacing state averages.

Arson incidents in the city fluctuated over the years but showed an overall decrease. From 18 cases in 2010, the number dropped to 6 in 2022, a 66.67% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.22 in 2010 to 0.07 in 2022. However, the city's share of state arson cases decreased from 0.29% to 0.10%, indicating that the reduction in arson cases was more pronounced in the city compared to the state average.

A notable correlation exists between property crime trends and population density. As the population density decreased from 10,903 per square mile in 2010 to 10,518 in 2022, there was a corresponding slight decrease in overall property crime. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $51,532 in 2013 to $72,406 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in burglary and larceny-theft rates, suggesting that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary rates are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching around 200 incidents per year. Larceny-theft is predicted to remain relatively stable, hovering around 1,400-1,450 incidents annually. However, motor vehicle theft may continue its upward trend, potentially reaching 400 incidents per year if current patterns persist. Arson cases are expected to remain low, likely staying under 10 incidents per year.

In summary, Alhambra has experienced a complex evolution in property crime trends over the past decade. While burglary and arson rates have significantly decreased, motor vehicle theft has risen considerably. Larceny-theft, despite some fluctuations, has remained relatively stable. These trends, coupled with the correlations observed with population density and median income, suggest that the city's property crime landscape is influenced by both demographic and economic factors. As the city moves forward, continued focus on addressing motor vehicle theft while maintaining the positive trends in other areas will be crucial for overall public safety and community well-being.