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Property Crime Trends in Albertville: A Decade of Change Amidst Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Albertville, located in Alabama, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2018, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 1,112 incidents in 2010 to 802 in 2018, representing a 27.9% decrease. This decline occurred alongside a population growth from 29,879 in 2010 to 30,677 in 2018, a 2.7% increase.
Burglary rates in the city showed a dramatic decline over the observed period. In 2010, there were 346 burglaries, which decreased to 194 by 2018, a 43.9% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 11.58 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 6.32 per 1,000 in 2018. Interestingly, despite this significant decrease in numbers, the city's share of state burglaries actually increased from 1.49% in 2010 to 1.16% in 2018, suggesting that burglary rates may have decreased more rapidly in other parts of the state.
Larceny-theft incidents also saw a substantial decrease, from 710 cases in 2010 to 492 in 2018, a 30.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 23.76 to 16.04 over the same period. However, similar to burglary, the city's percentage of state larceny-theft incidents decreased only slightly, from 0.97% to 0.77%, indicating a statewide trend of decreasing larceny-theft rates.
Motor vehicle theft presented a unique trend. While the number of incidents increased from 56 in 2010 to 116 in 2018, a 107.1% increase, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose more dramatically from 0.94% to 1.45%. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.87 to 3.78. This suggests that motor vehicle theft became a more significant issue in the city relative to the rest of the state during this period.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $35,432 in 2015 to $51,599 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. This suggests a potential negative correlation between income levels and property crime. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 63% in 2018 to 70% in 2022, which coincided with the period of decreasing property crime rates, potentially indicating a relationship between higher home ownership and lower crime rates.
Racial demographics also showed some correlation with crime trends. As the Hispanic population percentage increased from 23% in 2013 to 29% in 2022, and the white population decreased from 73% to 65% over the same period, overall property crime rates declined. This suggests that changing racial demographics did not negatively impact crime rates in the city.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), Albertville may see a continued decrease in burglary and larceny-theft rates, potentially reaching as low as 150 burglaries and 400 larceny-thefts annually. However, motor vehicle theft rates may continue to rise, potentially reaching 150-160 incidents annually. Overall property crime rates are likely to stabilize or continue a slight downward trend, barring any significant socioeconomic changes.
In summary, Albertville has experienced a general downward trend in property crime rates over the past decade, with the notable exception of motor vehicle theft. The correlations between rising median income, increased home ownership, and changing racial demographics with decreasing crime rates suggest a complex interplay of socioeconomic factors influencing crime trends in the city. As Albertville continues to evolve, monitoring these trends will be crucial for maintaining and improving public safety.
