Property Crime Trends in Albany, California: A Decade of Mixed Results
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
DATA SOURCE
Albany, located in California, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with 582 incidents reported in 2010 and 564 in 2022, representing a slight decrease of 3.09%. During this same period, the population grew from 18,043 to 20,027, an increase of 11.00%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a general downward trend. In 2010, there were 95 burglaries reported, which decreased to 70 in 2022, a 26.32% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 5.26 in 2010 to 3.49 in 2022, a significant 33.65% decrease. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.04% to 0.06% over the years, indicating that the local trend broadly aligned with statewide patterns.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, showed more variability. The number of incidents increased from 392 in 2010 to 432 in 2022, a 10.20% rise. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased slightly from 21.73 to 21.57, a 0.74% drop. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.08% in 2010 to 0.09% in 2022, suggesting a slight divergence from statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city fluctuated but ultimately decreased over the period. There were 95 incidents in 2010, which reduced to 62 in 2022, a 34.74% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 5.26 to 3.10, a substantial 41.06% reduction. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.07% to 0.04%, indicating a more significant improvement compared to state trends.
Arson cases in the city showed a concerning increase. From 4 incidents in 2010, the number rose to 12 in 2022, a 200% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.22 to 0.60, a 172.73% rise. Most notably, the city's share of state arson cases jumped from 0.07% to 0.19%, suggesting a localized issue that diverges significantly from state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income rose from $94,761 in 2013 to $112,939 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the increasing Asian population (from 27% in 2013 to 30% in 2022) and the decreasing trend in burglaries and motor vehicle thefts.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continuation of the overall decreasing trend in burglaries and motor vehicle thefts. Larceny-theft is expected to remain relatively stable, while arson cases may continue to increase if current trends persist.
In summary, Albany has experienced a mixed but generally improving property crime landscape over the past decade. The significant reductions in burglary and motor vehicle theft rates, despite population growth, are particularly noteworthy. However, the sharp increase in arson cases presents a unique challenge that may require targeted intervention. The correlations between rising incomes, changing demographics, and declining property crime rates suggest that socioeconomic factors play a crucial role in shaping the city's crime landscape.
