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Property Crime Trends in Advance, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Advance, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 13 in 2010 and ending at 18 in 2020, representing a 38.46% increase. During this same period, the population experienced modest growth, rising from 2,085 in 2010 to 2,030.5 in 2020, a 2.62% decrease.
Burglary trends in the city show notable fluctuations. In 2010, there were 5 burglaries, which remained constant in 2014 and 2016 but dropped to 2 in 2017. By 2020, burglaries decreased to 4. The burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 2.40 in 2010 to 1.97 in 2020. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2020, suggesting a slight rise in the city's contribution to state-wide burglary statistics despite the local decrease in incidents.
Larceny-theft trends have been more volatile. Starting with 8 incidents in 2010, the number peaked at 23 in 2012 before declining to 12 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 3.84 in 2010 to 5.91 in 2020. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.02% throughout the decade. This suggests that while local larceny-theft rates increased, they remained proportional to state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been sporadic. There were no reported incidents in 2010, 2013, and several other years. However, 3 cases were reported in 2014, and 2 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 residents in 2020 was 0.98. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2020, indicating a slight rise in the city's contribution to state statistics.
Arson incidents have been rare, with only one reported case in 2012, representing 0.1% of state arsons that year. In all other years, no arsons were reported, resulting in a 0% contribution to state statistics. This suggests that arson is not a significant concern for the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between property crime trends and median income. As median income increased from $34,147 in 2013 to $43,753 in 2020, property crimes fluctuated but showed an overall decrease from 21 in 2013 to 18 in 2020. This suggests that rising incomes may have contributed to a slight reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may experience a slight increase in overall property crimes, potentially reaching around 22-25 incidents annually. Burglaries are expected to remain stable at 4-5 per year, while larceny-theft may increase to 15-18 incidents annually. Motor vehicle thefts are projected to remain low but may see occasional spikes of 2-3 incidents per year.
In summary, Advance has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade, with an overall increase in total incidents despite population decline. Burglary rates have decreased, while larceny-theft has shown an upward trend. The city's contribution to state-wide property crime statistics has remained relatively small but has shown slight increases in some categories. The correlation between rising median incomes and a slight decrease in property crimes suggests that economic factors may play a role in crime trends. Moving forward, the city may face modest increases in property crime, particularly in larceny-theft, necessitating continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies.
