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Property Crime Trends in Adrian, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Adrian, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, peaking at 65 incidents in 2019 before declining sharply to just 15 in 2022, representing a 76.9% decrease over this period. Interestingly, this crime reduction occurred alongside a modest population increase of 1.9%, from 2,652 residents in 2010 to 2,702 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown notable volatility. In 2010, there were 5 burglaries, which increased to a high of 27 in 2019, before drastically falling to just 1 in 2022. This represents an 80% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 1.89 in 2010 to 0.37 in 2022, a significant improvement in public safety. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.17% in 2019 before dropping to 0.01% in 2022, indicating a substantial improvement relative to state-wide trends.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, exhibited a downward trend. From 30 incidents in 2010, it decreased to 12 in 2022, a 60% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 11.31 in 2010 to 4.44 in 2022, suggesting improved community safety. The city's contribution to state larceny theft remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.02% and 0.05% over the years, ending at 0.02% in 2022.
Motor vehicle theft showed minor fluctuations but remained relatively low throughout the period. From 1 incident in 2010, it increased slightly to 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents rose marginally from 0.38 in 2010 to 0.74 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained consistently low, never exceeding 0.03% and ending at 0.01% in 2022.
Arson cases were sporadic and infrequent. The city reported 2 cases in 2010 and 2018, with no incidents in most other years, including 2022. This irregularity makes it challenging to discern a clear trend, but it's notable that arson has not been a persistent problem in recent years.
A strong correlation appears between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 1,584 per square mile in 2010 to 1,614 in 2022, total property crimes also declined, suggesting that lower density might contribute to reduced crime opportunities.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued downward trajectory. Based on the sharp decline observed from 2019 to 2022, it's projected that total property crimes could potentially decrease further to around 10-12 incidents annually by 2029, assuming current socio-economic conditions and law enforcement strategies remain consistent.
In summary, Adrian has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. The significant reduction in crime, especially when considering the slight population growth, suggests effective law enforcement strategies and community engagement. These trends position the city favorably for continued safety and security in the coming years, potentially enhancing its appeal for residents and businesses alike.
