Motor vehicle theft showed more variability but ultimately increased over the period. In 2010, there were 8 motor vehicle thefts, which rose to 16 in 2022, a 100% increase. However, when adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 residents increased less dramatically from 0.95 in 2010 to 1.54 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.04% and 0.22%. This increase, especially in recent years, may suggest a need for enhanced vehicle security measures or targeted law enforcement efforts.

Arson cases in the city remained relatively low but showed some fluctuation. In 2010, there were 2 arson cases, which remained the same in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents slightly decreased from 0.24 in 2010 to 0.19 in 2022 due to population growth. The city's share of state arsons varied widely, from 0% to 0.4%, indicating that arson is a sporadic issue rather than a consistent problem.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $56,128 in 2013 to $62,105 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there seems to be a positive correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing and reduced property crime rates. As owner occupancy increased from 58% in 2013 to 70% in 2022, property crime rates generally declined.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the overall decreasing trend in property crimes. Based on historical data and current trajectories, it's projected that by 2029: - Burglaries may decrease further to around 15-20 incidents per year. - Larceny-theft could stabilize at approximately 200-220 cases annually. - Motor vehicle thefts might increase slightly to 18-20 incidents per year. - Arson cases are likely to remain low, with 1-3 incidents annually.

In summary, Aberdeen has shown a generally positive trend in property crime reduction over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts, despite significant population growth. The correlation between rising median incomes, increased home ownership, and declining crime rates suggests that economic stability and community investment may play a role in crime reduction. However, the slight uptick in motor vehicle thefts warrants attention. As the city continues to grow, maintaining and enhancing current crime prevention strategies will be crucial to sustaining these positive trends.