Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown fluctuation but an overall decrease. From 4 incidents in 2011, it dropped to 0 in several years, before rising to 2 cases in 2020. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.35 in 2011 to 0.60 in 2020. Interestingly, despite the low numbers, the city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics rose to 0.04% in 2020, up from 0.03% in 2011. This suggests that while the city has made progress, there's still room for improvement in vehicle security.

Arson cases in Abbeville have been sporadic. The city reported 2 cases in 2011 and 1 in 2015, with no reported cases in other years. The arson rate per 1,000 people was 0.67 in 2011 and 0.31 in 2015. The city's contribution to state arson statistics was notably high at 0.52% in 2011 and 0.36% in 2015, despite the low number of incidents. This indicates that while arson is not a persistent problem, when it occurs, it significantly impacts state-level statistics due to the city's small size.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As the median income increased from $19,532 in 2013 to $30,213 in 2022, property crime rates decreased. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced crime rates. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between homeownership rates and crime reduction. As the percentage of owner-occupied homes increased from 53% in 2016 to 61% in 2022, property crime rates continued to decline, indicating that higher homeownership might contribute to community stability and reduced crime.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Abbeville could potentially see a further reduction in overall property crime rates. Based on the current trends, burglary and larceny-theft rates are expected to remain low or potentially reach zero. Motor vehicle theft might fluctuate but is likely to remain under 1 incident per year. Arson cases are predicted to remain sporadic, with potentially 0-1 cases every few years.

In summary, Abbeville has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, despite population growth. The significant reductions in burglary and larceny-theft, coupled with the manageable levels of motor vehicle theft and sporadic arson incidents, paint a picture of a community that has effectively addressed property crime issues. The correlations with rising median income and homeownership suggest that economic development and community stability play crucial roles in crime reduction. As Abbeville continues to grow and develop, maintaining these positive trends will be key to ensuring a safe and prosperous community for its residents.