Motor vehicle theft fluctuated over the years, starting at 4 incidents in 2010, peaking at 19 in 2016, and settling at 9 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.46 in 2010 to 0.81 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022, peaking at 0.22% in 2016. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft has increased, it remains a relatively small contributor to state totals.

Arson incidents have been sporadic, with most years reporting either 0 or 1 case. The highest number recorded was 2 incidents in 2016. The arson rate per 1,000 people has remained very low, never exceeding 0.19. The city's percentage of state arsons has fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.30% in 2016 but often remaining at 0.00%. This indicates that arson is not a significant ongoing concern for the city.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and property crime rates. As population density increased from 1,655 per square mile in 2010 to 2,107 in 2022, property crimes generally rose, suggesting that increased urbanization may contribute to higher crime rates. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the slight decrease in the percentage of owner-occupied housing (from 71% in 2019 to 68% in 2022) and the recent uptick in property crimes, particularly larceny theft.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), Lafayette may experience: - A continued increase in larceny theft, potentially reaching 180-200 incidents annually - Stabilization of burglary rates around 15-20 incidents per year - A slight increase in motor vehicle thefts to approximately 12-15 annually - Consistently low arson rates, likely remaining at 0-1 incidents per year

In summary, Lafayette has experienced a significant increase in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in larceny theft. While burglary and motor vehicle theft have shown some fluctuation, they have generally increased as well. The city's contribution to state crime totals has grown, especially in larceny theft. These trends, coupled with population growth and changes in housing occupancy, suggest that Lafayette may need to address rising property crime rates as it continues to develop and urbanize.